BOOKINGS BOFF Gavin Murphy (@GamePlanGavin) dips his toe into Major League Soccer on Sunday for a cards-based bet.
New York City v New York Red Bulls | Sunday 17.00 | Sky Sports 1
A rare dip into Major League Soccer this weekend as the New York derby takes centre stage.
The teams are meeting for the second time this season. The Red Bulls defeated New York City 7-0 on 21st May at Yankee Stadium to take the first NYDerby, the victory matching the largest margin of victory in MLS history – all of which were achieved by teams playing on the road.
The seven goals scored by the Red Bulls were also the most in a single game in the club’s 21-year history, tied for the second-most goals ever scored by one team in an MLS game.
The teams have met four times, and the Red Bulls have won all four, twice at each ground, now with a 14-2 goal differential in the series.
Bradley Wright-Phillips has owned the rivalry, scoring in each match, netting six goals in all, including two in the first game this year.
There were 23 fouls in the 7-0 drubbing and four yellow cards. The three previous meetings produced total card counts of 4-4-8.
Hilario Grajeda is the referee in charge here. He has been lenient in MLS so far this season averaging 3.00 cards-per-game.
His career stats covering these teams are more encouraging though. He gave NYC two yellows in his only match covering them. He has given the Red Bulls more cards in his career (44) than any other club at an average of 2.20 cards-per-game.
This implies that 4.20 cards-per-game might be expected and that is consistent with recent trends where exactly four have been issued in the past three games.
You would expect Patrick Vieira’s City to be smarting after such an embarrassing result against their local rivals last time these two met. This match also pitches second-placed City against third-placed Red Bulls so additional spice because of the importance of league position.
I’m expecting plenty of passion in the Big Apple and if there were four cards shown in a 7-0 rout we can expect at least one more here in what will surely be a closer affair.
I’m backing Over 4.5 Cards on Bet365‘s Asian line at 1.90.
New York City v New York Red Bulls – Over 4.5 Cards (1.90 Bet365)