BOOKINGS BOFF Gavin Murphy (@GamePlanGavin) guides us towards the best value cards options on Saturday night.
Germany v Italy | Saturday 20.00 | BBC1
Germany will look to reverse the tide of history when they take on Italy in the third Euro 2016 quarter-final in Bordeaux on Saturday night.
Italy have never lost to Germany in a competitive fixture and have beaten them in three semi-finals, including at Euro 2012.
Three-time winners Germany have won all of their five European Championship quarter-finals while Italy, champions in 1968, have won two and lost two of their four last-eight ties.
Italy have posted almost twice as many wins as Germany in their 30 previous encounters, their record reading W15-D10-L8-F49-A40.
In this year’s tournament the Azzurri have collected 13 yellow cards, compared to Germany’s paltry five. On average, the Italians have picked up 2.00 cards-per-game more than the world champions. Furthermore, the Italians have committed 68 fouls compared to Germany’s 46.
In the most competitive meeting between the two countries at Euro 2012, Italy received four cards to Germany’s one.
Hungarian Viktor Kassai gets the whistle for this one. In three previous games officiating Germany he has given them zero cards. In contrast, in his two matches covering Italy he has dished out six cards to the Azzurri.
This looks a very solid bet indeed and with all the stats pointing one way, I’m backing Italy to receive the most cards at 8/11 with Bet365.
Germany v Italy – Italy to receive the most cards (8/11 Bet365)