CHRIS GRAHAM (@ChrisGraham79) concluded his campaign with 2/2 Premier League winners and Tuesday night gives him the chance to complete the full house as Manchester United meet Bournemouth in their rearranged fixture.
Manchester United v Bournemouth | Tuesday 20.00 | Sky Sports 1
For a bet that’s paid out in the last seven games at Old Trafford it’s pretty remarkable to see Under 2.5 Goals trading as big as 29/20 here on Tuesday. It’s not a price I can refuse.
With Manchester United 8/13 to beat Bournemouth it’s clear that the prices indicate a strong performance from the home side, one replete with goals perhaps. As we know though, United don’t really work like that.
For all they’ve been impressive at Old Trafford this season (just two defeats in all competitions) it’s been rare for them to rack up a ball-busting scoreline.
In their last 22 home matches (since the final day of September) they’ve scored Over 2.5 Goals on just three occasions and remarkably 15 times they’ve dipped Under 1.5 Goals. Yes, 15 times out of 22 they’ve failed to score more than one goal in the game.
The 15 games I mention have been up against the likes of Sheffield United, Middlesbrough, Aston Villa, Norwich and Watford. Hardly world-beaters, so why should we assume they’ll crank up the goals against Bournemouth.
It’s worth pointing out that as well as being weak in the final third Manchester United are also pretty frugal when it comes to conceding. Louis Van Gaal’s side have kept three clean sheets in their last four home matches and registered six consecutive Old Trafford shutouts earlier in the season.
So yeah it might be tough for Bournemouth on Sunday. Eddie Howe’s side have had an excellent season and whatever happens here will leave with their 2015/16 heads held high.
The Cherries may have scored in three of their last five away matches but the level of opposition has been easier than this when you consider they’ve met two relegated sides plus out of form Everton and Watford. Their only strong challenge was at White Hart Lane were they failed to score. That may be the case as well on Sunday.
With Manchester United scoring low on not only home goals but also home goals conceded and Bournemouth’s work done for the season I fear we’ll see a low-scoring game here and at 11/8 Under 2.5 Goals is too good to turn down.
Man Utd v Bournemouth – Under 2.5 Goals (29/20 Winner)