BOOKINGS boff Gavin Murphy (@GamePlanGavin) highlights the cards angle for Saturday evening’s Champions League final.
Atletico Madrid v Real Madrid | Saturday 19.45 | BT Sport Europe
The Champions League final takes centre stage on Saturday night as bitter local rivals Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid lock horn at the San Siro.
These two teams met in the final two seasons ago and seven cards were issued that day by Bjorn Kuipers – four were dished out in the second-half.
That match aside and four most recent finals have produced relatively low total card counts of 3-3-3-4. Of course this match would be expected to follow the pattern of the final between these two teams in 2013/14 rather than these low card make-ups.
The whisteblower on this occasion, Mark Clattenburg, will try and do what every other official who referees this fixture does every season – keep your cards in your pocket for as long as possible. He will only be able to do that for so long before the tension gets too much, the theatrics start and the game opens up.
As standard, Clattenburg gives 63% of his cards out after the half-time oranges. It’s also worth noting that in domestic action, Real collect 69% of their cards after the interval and Atletico 61%.
In the past 12 meetings between these two teams the ‘Over 3 Cards’ in the second-half has won every occasion with totals of 5-7-5-5-5-7-8-7-9-4-5. Clattenburg also took charge of this season’s semi-final between Atletico and Bayern Munich and he gave four cards in the second-half.
The English official can expect plenty of passion, simulation and time wasting given the culture of Spanish teams. It’s not to everyone’s taste but I love it.
I don’t want to put the hooters on it but I’m really struggling to see how this bet won’t win.With exceptional stats, I am taking Over 3 Cards in the second-half with William Hill at a surprisingly generous even-money.
Atletico Madrid v Real Madrid – Over 3 Cards in the second-half (1/1 William Hill)