THERE’S live Championship action to enjoy on Monday night as promotion-chasing Burnley meet pre-season favourites Derby at Turf Moor. Mark O’Haire (@MarkOHaire) analyses the best bets.
Burnley v Derby | Monday 19.45 | Sky Sports 1
Derby sat top of the tree on Boxing Day following a routine 2-0 home victory over Fulham made it an outstanding W13-D4-L1 from their previous 18 outings.
The Rams had gotten off to a slow start under Paul Clement (W0-D4-L1) but gradually the wheels began to turn and Derby once more looked like a well-oiled machine destined for a top-two finish.
However, W0-D2-L2 later – leaking at least two goals in three of those four – has seen the Rams slide down to fourth and seven points off the pace. Last weekend they were trounced 3-0 at Birmingham.
Derby fans can be forgiven for thinking the recurring nightmare of, going off the rails following a promising start, is back to bite. But investors and owners are also going to be scratching their heads after splurging an eye-watering £25m on players since the end of last season.
But despite the obvious negativity floating around, I’m still unwilling to write the Rams off. They’ve suffered just four defeats in 27 and leaked only 21 goals as the centre-half axis of Jason Shackell and Richard Keogh excels. There’s class across the midfield and Clement’s side tend to dominate the ball, minimising opportunity for their opposition.
Derby’s tally of just nine goals conceded on their travels is a divisional best with no club facing fewer shots-on-target on their travels. But that’s where the defence ends as the Rams simply aren’t doing enough in the opposition penalty box to warrant a bet.
Just seven sides have fired in fewer on-target efforts on the road than Monday’s guests and in six of their 13 away days they’ve managed two or fewer. So it’s no major surprise to see Derby have fired blanks in five of their away days.
For those with a fetish for head-to-head records, you’ll also want to steer clear of Derby – they’ve failed to find the net in five of their last six with Burnley and W0-D3-L8 in their most recent 11 league meetings. Ouch.
It’s true the hosts are going great guns at the minute – W5-D1-L1 – with their sole reverse coming at high-flying Hull. And last Friday night we saw Sean Dyche’s men race into a three-goal lead when dispatching Brentford at Griffin Park.
The Clarets are just a point and a place behind the Rams and boast a strong W8-D3-L2 return from their Turf Moor encounters this term. Like their guests, Burnley are built from a solid defensive foundation and those aforementioned seven outings including four clean sheets and only three goals against in nine.
However, a win over Sheffield Wednesday back in September is the Clarets’ only triumph against a top-eight team and just 17 on-target attempts from their most recent five home fixtures (v Ipswich, Bristol City, Charlton, Preston and Brighton) isn’t exactly electric.
These two played out a dour goalless draw at the iPro earlier this season and a similar show here wouldn’t be a huge shock. One goal could easily be enough and so opposing Both Teams To Score looks like a decent route to take with BetVictor offering 5/6.
Derby have delivered winning BTTS bets in only four of their most recent 15 with Burnley following suit in just three of their last 11. At 5/6, I’ll have a wee poke.
Burnley v Derby – Both Teams To Score ‘No’ (5/6 BetVictor)
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