WILL DYER’S (@W2Dyer) unique match ratings eked out more Premier League profit on Boxing Day. Can he repeat the feat on matchday 19?
A Christmas treat for you, WLB folk. Will Dyer (@W2Dyer), an esteemed member of the WLB stable, has been active on Twitter recently, promoting his unique match ratings and best Premier League bets.
We asked Will if didn’t mind sharing the secrets to those match ratings and he’s kindly agreed. He’s also given us a rundown on his Boxing Day ratings and best bets for the next round of the Premier League – what a nice guy.
The numbers after each club’s name relates to Will’s unique match rating and a full explanation and beginners guide to the system can be found right here on WLB. If you need more help or want to know a little more science behind the system, Will’s happy to help on Twitter (@W2Dyer).
Crystal Palace (125/180) v Swansea (113/180) | Monday 15.00
Palace looked pretty drab in front of goal at the Goldsands on Boxing Day and, now without Yannick Bolasie for a while, they are missing the best of their counter-attacking weapons.
However, they face a Swansea side that have only beaten West Brom and Aston Villa since August, lost five of their last six away games and still haven’t appointed a manager.
Crystal Palace v Swansea – Crystal Palace to win (11/10 Bet365)
Everton (122/180) v Stoke (117/180) | Monday 15.00
Everton played some beautiful stuff at times this season and so are rated better than Stoke but only narrowly.
The Potters have been incredibly strong at the back since Ryan Shawcross returned to the team and the likes of Marko Arnautovic are causing big problems up top despite not scoring too frequently.
This looks a pretty tight game.
Everton v Stoke – Draw (27/10 888 Sport)
Norwich (119/180) v Aston Villa (110/180) | Monday 15.00
With the differential of 5% that puts these two just within the nine points to qualify for a draw and that’s a prediction I like because Aston Villa are certainly gelling under Remi Garde and performances in recent weeks have been greatly improved.
They continue to concede the first goal which is a worry but that fighting spirit seems to be growing.
Norwich were dominated at White Hart Lane but most teams have been this season. These are two teams that don’t score too much so the 0-0 and 1-1 have strong claims.
Norwich v Aston Villa – Draw (13/5 Bet365)
Watford (138/180) v Spurs (129/180) | Monday 15.00
Two teams that have been hugely successful so far this season and another game that is just within the draw criteria. Fear not because since I altered the differential in Week 10 the last 8 weeks have generated a +18.5 profit from backing stalemates.
Without the Leicester fairytale we’d all be raving about Watford and rightly so. The Hornets have the sixth best defensive record in the league and that’s testament to how well organised they are.
Spurs actually have the best defensive record of the lot and have been dominating games all season; they are ahead of expectations but no more so than Watford.
Watford (138/180) v Spurs – Draw (5/2 Betvictor)
West Brom (103/180) v Newcastle (98/180) | Monday 15.00
The Baggies have all the hallmarks of a ‘sinker’ this season; a team that could and probably will get dragged into the relegation battle.
There’s much unrest at the club around the style of play and Tony Pulis was searching for excuses again post-match after his team failed to create many goal-scoring opportunities, as usual.
Newcastle are improving under Steve McClaren. He’s adamant that there’s a good atmosphere around the squad and we have seen that in their positive football over the last couple of weeks. They can get something at the Hawthorns.
West Brom v Newcastle – Draw (12/5 888 Sport)
Arsenal (111/180) v Bournemouth (123/180) | Monday 17.30
I’m sure this will be the prediction that raises a lot of eyebrows but bear with me. Bournemouth deserve their plaudits this season and why would you want to back Arsenal at 4/9 after that shambles at St. Mary’s anyway?
I wrote an essay for another site on why I wasn’t that impressed by Arsenal against Manchester City. Sure they did some things very well but they didn’t create anywhere near the amount of chances that City did, and had Kevin De Bruyne and Jesus Navas taken theirs when through on goal, the result would have been very different.
Arsenal reverted to dominating possession against Saints but this time did nothing with it. This now means that the Gunners have been outshot 31-15 over their last two fixtures and if you continue to do that you will lose games.
Bournemouth under Eddie Howe have no fear and are the pick at a tasty price.
Arsenal v Bournemouth – Bournemouth to win (15/2 Betfair)
Manchester United (103/180) v Chelsea (91/180) | Monday 17.30 | BT Sport 1
The two most underperforming teams in the country match-up in what is usually a top of the table affair but now sees sixth host 15th.
United look on the cusp of parting ways with Louis van Gaal – and not a minute too soon if you ask most people. Whilst the Red Devils have been terribly dull, they have still done more things right than Chelsea this season.
The Blues have been transformed since Jose Mourinho left the Bridge but they certainly aren’t out of the woods yet. For all their dominance in possession and attempts last weekend they actually had fewer shots-on-target than Watford and, without Diego Costa at Old Trafford, I wouldn’t count on them being able to score against a team that’s kept a bunch of clean sheets at home this season.
It seems mad after the dross that was served up at the Britannia by Man U but over the course of the season ask yourself who’s been the better team?
Manchester United v Chelsea – Manchester United to win (13/8 Coral)
West Ham (120/180) v Southampton (113/180) | Monday 17.30
There’s growing concern around the Boleyn that West Ham are looking like they did under Sam Allardyce again. Slaven Bilic has overseen five consecutive draws and his team haven’t scored more than one goal in a game in any of their last eight outings. Dmitri Payet is sorely missed.
Southampton though hadn’t scored more than one in any of their last six in the league prior to their pounding of Arsenal on Boxing Night. One of the beauties of this system is that it stops me being so fickle.
One big win doesn’t mean Saints will follow that up here.
West Ham v Southampton – Draw (12/5 Bet365)
Leicester (136/180) v Manchester City (126/180) | Tuesday 19.45 | BT Sport 1
Leicester didn’t show up at Anfield but one defeat doesn’t mean they will simply crumble. Indeed their fans point to their last defeat and the run that followed; 10 games unbeaten and eight wins.
The Foxes have been the standout team this season and get the nod over a Manchester City side that have struggled on their travels and been vulnerable at the back for three months without Vincent Kompany, who is now sidelined again.
Leicester v Manchester City – Leicester to win (16/5 Bet365)
Sunderland (102/180) v Liverpool (110/180) | Wednesday 19.45 | BT Sport 1
Sunderland have entered some worrying form again but this time under the relegation dodge.
Liverpool are going to take some time to improve under Jurgen Klopp it seems and although the performance against Leicester was promising, we’ve seen them play better then follow that up with trollop in the next game.
The Reds have lost ‘to nil’ in their last two away games and been pretty abysmal too. Sunderland at home are far more competitive than on their travels.
A draw looks right given the performances across the season for these sides and is certainly a good price with Liverpool odds-on.
Sunderland v Liverpool – Draw (29/10 Bet365)
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