CHRIS Graham (@ChrisGraham79) talks us through his betting angle for Sweden’s derby match with Denmark in the Euro 2016 play-offs.
Sweden v Denmark | Saturday 19.45 | Sky Sports 1
On paper this looks an exciting tie. Two glamorous nations bound together by a rich football heritage and a local rivalry. Scratch the surface though and the level of glamour looks low.
Sweden plodded through their group taking just one point out of six against their main rivals Austria and Russia. Any hopes they had of finishing in the top-two came to a crushing end in September when they lost 4-1 to Austria at home. It was an embarrassing loss that’s surely dented their confidence.
Denmark seem to have been in flux since they took part in the 2012 European Championships. Their World Cup 2014 campaign was blighted by a shocking 4-0 home loss to Armenia that did damage to the reputation of the nation.
They’ve got their revenge over Armenia since in this particular group but there have been a few negative marks as well – mainly in the second half of the group.
Yes, home and away wins over Serbia halfway through the campaign put the Danes on a strong footing to secure automatic qualification but after that it felt like they run out of gas.
Two 0-0 draws (home to Albania and away to Armenia respectively) were then followed by a 1-0 defeat in Portugal. Just two points out of nine from their last three fixtures was enough for Albania to overtake them and take the second automatic qualifying spot.
The Danes played eight games and scored eight goals. Hardly a strike rate that will fire fear into the hearts of other nations eh?
The Swedes themselves were hardly prolific in their group and failed to score more than two goals in a match throughout the campaign despite having Moldova and Liechtenstein in their section.
Both play-offs have gone Under 2.5 Goals so far and I can certainly see the same thing occurring here. Seven of the last eight match-ups have gone Under 2.5 Goals and just one of the last 14 encounters saw both teams notch. Strong stats!
I’ll side with the stats and have a play on Under 1.5 Goals and at a reasonably priced 13/8 (William Hill) in what should be a tense affair between two uninspiring nations.
Sweden v Denmark – Under 1.5 Goals (13/8 William Hill)