CHRIS Graham (@ChrisGraham79) has perused the odds on Monday Night Football’s clash between Spurs and Aston Villa. Here he shares his best bet.
Spurs v Aston Villa | Monday 20.00 | Sky Sports 1
As I type it looks like Aston Villa will announce former Lyon manager Remi Garde as their new manager on Monday morning. I won’t claim to know too much about him but from listening to French football experts doing the rounds on the podcasts he looks a positive recruit.
I’m never really a fan of betting on games involving a new manager in the dugout, but if pushed I’d always prefer backing the side under the new regime rather than opposing them.
So on Monday night Garde’s Villa go to White Hart Lane to take on a Tottenham side with the longest unbeaten run in the league this season. Spurs haven’t lost since the opening day of the season and a win here will put them back in the top-5.
For me Spurs seem a little underrated by the bookmakers most weeks. They’re always half a point to a point bigger than Liverpool would be in an equivalent fixture and I’ve lost count the number of times I’ve backed them around the 10/11 mark away from home against lowly opposition. Despite this I’m not a fan of backing them at really short prices.
On Monday Mauricio Pochettino’s side are no bigger than 4/9 to win at home and it’s not a price that attracts me. Spurs have this nasty habit of dropping silly points against inferior sides and when you’re offered 4/9 that thought is hard to dispel from one’s mind.
This season they’ve dropped points in six of their 10 league games including matches against Swansea, Stoke and Leicester. And let’s not forget last season either where they flopped against West Brom, Newcastle, Crystal Palace and Stoke home and away. 4/9? No, not for me.
So how do I get with Villa? At 17/2 with Bet Victor, there are plenty of opportunities. I sided with them +1.25 midweek and they didn’t let me down when losing by just the odd goal to Southampton.
Yes, they’re bad, but surely not as bad as the table tells us. Eight defeats in the Premier League is poor but scratch the surface and seven of those losses were by the odd goal. Fine margins etc.
With a new look feel at the club and a bit of expectant pressure on Spurs I’m happy to chance Villa in the handicap markets on Monday. I’ll back them +1.5 at odds of 14/19 with BetVictor – that’s 1.74 in decimals.
Despite their perilous position in the league table that bet would have paid out in 12 of Villa’s 13 matches this season.
Spurs v Aston Villa – Aston Villa +1.5 Asian Handicap (14/19 BetVictor)
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