ANOTHER 2/3 haul of Football League winners for Mark O’Haire (@MarkOHaire) on Saturday. He’s back for more with Tuesday’s midweek coupon in range.
Gillingham v Fleetwood | Tuesday 19.45
My brain is battling the Oktoberfest hangover from hell so I’ll keep things simple and concise. Gillingham are available to back at odds-against at 20/19 (Paddy Power) and that’s just too big, for me.
I’ve eulogised enough about Justin Edinburgh over the past 18 months so there’s no need to go over old ground. However, it is worth pointing out the fabulous run the Kent club are on at their Priestfield home.
The Gills have won seven on the spin in front of their home fans and 11 of their last 15 when entertaining in League One. Under Edinburgh’s watch that record reads W8-D2-L2 and although Fleetwood were one of the teams to defeat Gillingham on their own patch, it’s an anomaly when looking at the two sides’ respective home and away returns.
Graham Alexander’s visitors have scored exactly one goal in each of their last four but won none (W0-D2-L2). The Cod Army have W1-D0-L3 in their four road trips in 2015/16, leaking at least twice on three occasions. And their W10-D3-L14 away record since arriving in the third tier gives them a 52% losing rate.
Fleet have been beaten in five of their six trips to top-six teams and whilst I reckon they’ve enough to finish in the upper echelons of League One this term, I do believe Gillingham should be odds-on to beat them on Tuesday night.
Scunthorpe v Walsall | Tuesday 19.45
Scunthorpe look a hefty price at home to Walsall. The Iron might be languishing around the lower reaches of the table but Mark Robins’ side have lost just five of their 21 outings at Glanford Park under his tutelage. True, the Saddlers have taken 10 points from 12 on the their travels this term but rather than invest my faith in the hosts, I’ll take a low-scoring tie.
Dean Smith’s Walsall have conceded just six goals in their nine league games and are likely to keep things tight on Tuesday night. The Saddlers have previous here – six of their nine matches in 2015/16 have failed to break the Over 2.5 Goals line and since the start of last season, 17/27 (63%) of their away days have followed suit. In fact, 13 of their previous 16 duels with bottom-six dwellers have featuring fewer than three goals.
A Tuesday repeat has been chalked up at 9/11 with Marathon and with Under 2.5 Goals also proving profitable in 11 of Scunthorpe’s last 13 plus 16/21 (76%) of Glanford Park league games under Robins, we should be expecting just under 70% chance of the bet banking again this midweek. In betting terms that percentage probability equates to a 4/9 play. The 9/11 is big value.
York v Oxford | Tuesday 19.45
Another fixture that screams unders when looking at the trends is York v Oxford. The last five league meetings have produced three 0-0 draws and just two goals in total. Another low-scoring tie can be backed at 4/6 with Boylesports.
The two clubs were scoreless on Saturday and boast a real penchant for Under 2.5 Goals winners when looking at their respective home/away league records. York have been involved in 16/21 (76%) of Under 2.5 Goals games at Bootham Crescent since Russ Wilcox too charge with all bar one of 12 matches when entertaining top-six guests also failing to feature three goals or more.
Oxford have been similarly low-scoring in 12 of their last 15 League Two trips and 19/27 (70%) since Michael Appleton was appointed as head coach. Between them they’ve kept 17/48 clean sheets in their respective home/away matches and failed to net at all on 18/48 occasions.
The trends suggest we’ve a 73% chance of seeing Under 2.5 Goals again and that translates to betting odds of 4/11. Again, that makes our 4/6 look like big value. I’m on.
Gillingham v Fleetwood – Gillingham to win (20/19 Paddy Power)
Scunthorpe v Walsall – Under 2.5 Goals (9/11 Marathon)
York v Oxford – Under 2.5 Goals (4/6 Boylesports)