Mark O’Haire (@MarkOHaire) takes a look at the betting ahead of the Monday night meeting between Derby and Burnley in the Championship.
Derby v Burnley | Monday 19.45 | Sky Sports 1
Derby and Burnley are expected to be in the Championship promotion shake-up come May and the two clubs arrive at Monday Night Football in decent shape. The Rams have put their false-start behind them with back-to-back road wins whilst Burnley travel to the iPro on the back of four successive victories.
Questions were being asked of Paul Clement’s suitability to fill the Derby hot-seat following a W0-D4-L1 streak before the international break. There was a widespread suggestion the former Real Madrid coach didn’t know his best XI nor know how he wanted to set his side up. However, fears have been eased with tough three-pointers at Reading and Preston.
It should be noted that the midweek success against the Royals saw Clement’s charges play against 10 men for over half of the match and at PNE, Derby were under the cosh for the final half hour as Simon Grayson’s men threw the kitchen sink at the Rams. But on the whole, County have been better than the results suggested and transfer deadline day spending should only boost their promotion hopes.
The hosts splashed out £10m on new midfielders Bradley Johnson and Jacob Butterfield and with star striker Chris Martin returning to form in recent weeks, there’s plenty to encourage home supporters. Although the Rams have struggled to breakdown sides and need to be creating more clear-cut chances, they have found the net in every game this season since the opening day goalless draw at Bolton
Burnley boast an outstanding W8-D2-L0 record in the last 10 head-to-head meetings and have only conceded once in five when taking on Derby. And Sean Dyche’s troops arrive more than capable of extending that handsome record following their four wins on the spin. Victory on Monday would send the Clarets second.
Dyche is set to name the same side for the fourth consecutive fixture and the same old Burnley we’ve become accustomed to seeing over the past 24 months should again be on show. The visitors will be reasonably direct, aggressive without the ball and quick. It could be a polar-opposite to Derby’s patient passing game – the Clarets have already made 900 fewer passes than the Rams at this stage of the season.
Still, Burnley only failed to find the net in one of their seven league games and the twin-threat of big-money signing Andre Gray and Welsh international Sam Vokes should give the visitors enough up top to grab a goal.
Five of the Clarets’ seven Championship games this season have proven profitable for Both Teams To Score backers (the same number as Derby’s matches) and I’m keen to get involved again at 17/20 (Coral). More so than any possible punt in the Match Odds market.
Derby have won just once in front of their own fans since February, beating already-relegated Blackpool in April and whilst their W9-D6-L4 record at home to top-half teams since the start of the 2013/14 season is encouraging, the hosts have managed just two maximum-point hauls in eight when entertaining the same standard of opposition.
Burnley have W11-D11-L7 when travelling to top-half sides under Dyche’s watch and their 76% success rate in avoiding defeat certainly opens up options. The visitors can be backed at 4/5 (Coral) in the Double Chance market to come away with a win or a draw and that does hold plenty of appeal, so we’ll add that to the list.
For the record, 16 of those 29 (55%) Burnley games featured BTTS winners and 11/19 (58%) of Derby’s aforementioned equivalent fixtures followed suit. Therefore, Correct Score hunters may be impressed by the 13/2 (888) on a 1-1 draw or 13/1 (888) for Burnley to win 2-1.