MLS Tips | 16th August 2015


WILL Dyer (@W2Dyer)’s investing his faith in four sides with a 17/1 four-fold from Major League Soccer this weekend.

FC Dallas v LA Galaxy | Sunday 02.00

Sometimes it pays to just look at the facts when selecting football bets and I feel this could be one of those occasions. LA Galaxy might be a force to be reckoned with at home and, with the arrival of Steven Gerrard and Giovanni Dos Santos, they might have a star-studded squad but the reality is that they have the worst away record in the Western Conference. Indeed, of all 20 MLS teams only Philadelphia and Chicago have a worse return than LA’s 8 points from 12 away games.

Dallas had won 5 MLS games on the bounce before defeat on the long haul to Chicago last weekend and back at their own Toyota Stadium I’m prepared to forgive them of that loss. They are unbeaten in 8 home games in all competition, winning 7 of those and if they were playing any other side with an away record of W1 D5 L6 I think they’d be 4/6 to win this.

On top of this the Texans hold a fantastic head to head record over the Galaxy at home; W15 D7 L6 of regular season meetings since 1998. 5/4 looks a wonderful price all things considered.

Sporting Kansas City v Vancouver Whitecaps | Sunday 02.00

I’ve not been able to catch many Whitecaps games recently due to the kick-off times and it’s a good job we haven’t been opposing them too regularly because they’ve shot to the top of the Western Conference but I still feel it’s a bit of a ‘false’ standing. If SKC can win their 3 games in hand they’ll overtake them and I think Vancouver have been lucky to play sides at the right time.

The Whitecaps might have won 7 away fixtures this season, way more than anyone else in either Conference, but they played Seattle when they had no forwards and LA, Red Bulls and New England when all three were in awful form. If we break down their away record of W7 D2 L4 to Conference records it’s much less impressive.

Away to the weaker Eastern Conference they have a W4 D0 L1 record but to the tougher Western sides it’s just W3 D2 L3; and 2 of those defeats were to bottom of the league Colorado Rapids.

Who do the Canadian’s face this weekend? Only the toughest home side in MLS. Sporting Kansas City are very intimidating at home, they are the only unbeaten hosts left in the league, winning 7 and drawing 4. They progressed to the US Open Cup Final in midweek with a victory over RSL and they’ve already won away in Vancouver this season.

Dom Dwyer’s support act of Krizstian Nemeth and Benny Feilhaber can’t stop scoring. All 3 players now have 7 or more goals this season and as a result I think they are an unmissable bet at odds against to win in front of the ‘Blue Hell’ at Sporting Park.

Real Salt Lake v Portland Timbers | Sunday 03.00

Yes Real have conceded a humiliating 10 goals in their last two away games but back in Salt Lake City results are very different. They are unbeaten in a lengthy 13 games in Utah and in fact in the last 12 months their home MLS record reads W11 D7 L1. Phenomenal really for a team kind of lacking in any exceptional quality.

Real beat Portland 2-0 in the US Open Cup just last month and although Alvaro Saborio’s trade to DC United is a bit of a blow I highly doubt they’ll lose this. The veteran striker has an incredible strike rate scoring bang on a goal every other game since 2010; 64 in 128 games in the league but Luis Silva comes the other way and with Joao Plata back from injury and 4 different players on target at RFK Memorial 2 weeks ago goals shouldn’t be too much of a problem.

RSL are coming up against one of the weakest away offences in the League in the shape of the Timbers who’ve fired just 8 goals in 12 away games and won just 1 of their last 6 away MLS fixtures.

Furthermore Salt Lake have dominated this fixture winning 7 of the last 8 times that they’ve hosted the Oregon side since 2012, 4 of those by a margin of 2 or more goals. Portland have a good side at the minute and the bookies are placing some trust in them but that’s given us a huge price on RSL which provides room for manoeuvre.

As I’ve already mentioned, Real have lost just 1 of their last 19 home MLS games! To be able to back them in the Draw No Bet market at almost Evens is incredible.

Philadelphia Union v Chicago Fire | Monday 00.00

These two meet for the second time in the space of 3 days after Philly dispatched of the Chicago in the US Open Cup Semi-Final on Wednesday night. That win was expected by most MLS fans due to Fire’s horrendous away record and I’m finding it hard to believe Union are odds against to win again.

Ok, it was only a 1-0 win but both sides fielded their strongest XI and Chicago have now not won in 17 away MLS games dating back over a year to last July. They did manage to draw 5 of those games but the odds still don’t accurately reflect the chances of a home win.

Both these teams are better at attacking than defending so we could see a few goals but even with Jeff Larentowicz back from injury CHI failed to keep a clean sheet at PPL Park and crucially David Accam, head and shoulders Chicago’s best player, is out with a hamstring injury suffered in mid-week. With Mike Magee also sidelined that leaves the Fire short on options.

The U are not without their own injury problems; there’s no Vincent Noguiera or Maurice Edu but they have decent cover in that position and they’ve brought in some real European quality in Tranquillo Barnetta which has gone under the radar a bit I think. Alongside Cristian Maidana and C.J. Sapong, who’s having a fantastic season, they should find that winning recipe again.

Best Bets

FC Dallas v LA Galaxy – FC Dallas to win (5/4 BetVictor)

Sporting Kansas City v Vancouver Whitecaps – Sporting Kansas City to win (6/5 SkyBet)

Real Salt Lake v Portland Timbers – Real Salt Lake draw no bet (19/20 Coral)

Philadelphia Union v Chicago Fire – Philadelphia Union to win (21/20 BetVictor)

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About Author

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Will's an avid supporter of his local team, Swindon Town. He got into betting after a serious case of beginners luck landing a 14 fold BTTS accumulator. Whilst mostly transfixed to the English Leagues, he can't get enough of football and can regularly be found watching more obscure matches from around the globe. Will has a growing interest in American Football after watching the Atlanta Falcons in the States a few years ago. Outside of betting he loves nothing more than snowboarding, travelling the world and a weekend with his pals.

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