Stats Value Bets | 28th May 2015

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CAN the stats lead us to big value winning bets? As our new feature continues, we highlight the best value opportunities based purely on the stats and trends available.

Santos Laguna v Queretaro | Friday 02.30

There’s slim pickings on Thursday but Liga MX encounter between Santos and Queretaro in the early hours of Friday morning fits the bill for our latest venture into a stats-based value bet.

The season is 17 games old but Ladbrokes’ 20/21 offering for a Both Teams To Score bet looks head and shoulders above the expected price of around 2/5 based on our projected odds.

Santos have hosted nine league fixtures at their Estadio Corona Torreón home (W4-D3-L2) and 6/9 (67%) have returned BTTS winners. The Warriors have netted in all bar one of those outings and boast just two shutouts in front of their home supporters – four matches have finished with four or more goals.

Visitors Queretaro have bagged six wins from their previous seven and will arrive in good spirits with Ronaldinho in tow. The White Roosters have also proven profitable in the Both Teams To Score market – 7/9 (78%) of away days have featured BTTS with those nine outings averaging 3.56 goals-per-game.

Finding the average win percentage for the Both Teams To Score bet from both teams’ home/away records suggests we should be expecting a 72.5% chance of a repeat on Friday morning. In betting terms that’s a shorter price than 2/5, making the 20/21 (Ladbrokes) a massive value selection.

Best Bets

Santos Laguna v Queretaro – Both Teams To Score (20/21 Ladbrokes)

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About Author

Profile photo of Mark O'Haire

After starting his career in newspaper journalism, Mark soon found his way into the online betting world, forging a career in content, social media and marketing production. With a huge passion for stats, the Football League and European football, Mark’s other interests include playing rugby, following his beloved QPR and travel.

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