Stats Value Bets | 27th May 2015


CAN the stats lead us to big value winning bets? As our new feature continues, we highlight the best value opportunities based purely on the stats and trends available.

PAOK v Panathinaikos | Wednesday 17.30

With Olympiakos securing their fifth successive Superleague title last month, all that’s left to be decided is who’ll join the Greek giants in the Champions League next season. A complicated round robin play-off competition is played between clubs finishing second and fifth and after two rounds of games, capital club Panathinaikos are flying highest.

Back-to-back victories over Atromitos and Asteras Tripolis have given the Greens a commanding advantage but their toughest test will arrive on Wednesday with a trip to Thessaloniki and a clash with a PAOK side that finished the regular season just behind their more illustrious opponents.

With plenty at stake, a tight battle could be in store. But the stats are suggesting big value in the Both Teams To Score market. Betfair have made the BTTS option an 11/10 play but going purely on the trends of both teams, a price closer to 4/5 would have been expected.

Despite a haul of six clean sheets in their past 10 outings, PAOK have seen the Both Teams To Score bet prove profitable in 10/17 (59%) of their home regular season fixtures, including nine of their 12 battles against teams in 13th and above.

Panathinaikos can boast clean sheets in both their previous play-off matches but coming into the end-of-season finale the Greens managed just two shutouts in 11 whilst 9/17 (53%) away games featured winning BTTS bets for punters during their league campaign.

Taking both clubs’ home/away success rate in the Both Teams To Score market and finding the average means we should be expecting around a 56% chance of a repeat on Wednesday evening. Turning that percentage expectancy into odds would give us a price of 4/5 so Betfair’s 11/10 offering gives us a decent value selection.

Atromitos v Asteras Tripolis | Wednesday 15.15

Staying in Greece, the early kick-off between the two other Champions League hopefuls gives punters another chance of picking up a slice of value.

Both Atromitos and Asteras Tripolis are unlikely to come close to securing qualification to Europe’s premier competition but Ladbrokes’ 21/10 on the Atromitos/ Atromitos double result dwarfs the expected odds of around 5/4.

The hosts can boast an unbeaten home record at their Peristeri Stadium home in Superleague action (W12-D6-L0 including the play-offs) including victories against the top-four in front of their home supporters. Nikos Nioplias’ charges kept 12 clean sheets across those 18 fixtures.

But it’s Atromitos’ penchant for fast starts that’s caught our attention. In 10 of their 17 regular season matches the hosts held a half-time lead and went on to record three points – that’s a 59% success rate for the home W-W double result.

Similarly, opponents Tripolis built their campaign on a rock solid unbeaten home record but struggled for results on the road. Their 16 points picked up on their travels was the ninth best Superleague record and saw the visitors W1-D4-L9 excluding the bottom-three.

Crucially for our bet, five of their nine away defeats saw the Arcadians trailing at the interval – that’s 29% of their 17 away days. Taking the two teams’ home/away records and finding the average suggests a 44% chance of a repeat on Wednesday; in betting terms that equates to a 5/4 shot making the 21/10 (Ladbrokes) a big value bet.

Best Bets

PAOK v Panathinaikos – Both Teams To Score (11/10 Betfair)

Atromitos v Asteras Tripolis – Atromitos/Atromitos double result (21/10 Ladbrokes)


About Author

Profile photo of Mark O'Haire

After starting his career in newspaper journalism, Mark soon found his way into the online betting world, forging a career in content, social media and marketing production. With a huge passion for stats, the Football League and European football, Mark’s other interests include playing rugby, following his beloved QPR and travel.

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