QPR v Man City | Saturday 17:30 | Sky Sports 1
In my first piece for WLB a few weeks ago I penned about City’s defensive frailties – just three clean sheets in 13 games (one v Sheffield Wednesday). Well that now reads just four clean sheets in 17 games, conceding 21 goals, and the extra one accrued was against 10 men. They’ve also lost three of those four games.
Meanwhile for QPR, after a disappointing start, the last three matches have seen them push Liverpool hard before losing to an own goal in the closing moments, beat Villa 2-0 and then give a decent account of themselves in a narrow defeat at Chelsea last week where they were unlucky to be beaten by a highly disputed penalty.
Charlie Austin has scored five goals in nine appearances this season, including at Stamford Bridge last weekend. Given that accounts for 56% of QPR’s goals (5 of 9) he looks good value at 7/2 (Betfred) to breach City’s backline. He averages 3.5 shots-per-game and I’m always happy to back someone who isn’t afraid to pull the trigger.
Given City’s current woe, I don’t think it’s too far fetched to take a punt on QPR winning. Missing arguably two out of four of their best players in David Silva and Vincent Kompany, and given how they lost away at Cardiff, Sunderland and Villa at this stage last season, 6/1 is more than fair. However, if you throw in Austin scoring in a QPR win, that becomes 16/1 (Hills).
I’ve already mentioned QPR’s reliance on him this season and if you go back to last year in the Championship, despite missing three months through injury, he still scored 19 of their 60 goals (32%).