THESE city rivals can no longer lay claims to be Italy’s best club sides but there’s still plenty to excite us when they lock horns in the Derby della Madonnina, says Mark O’Haire (@MarkOHaire).
AC Milan v Inter Milan | Sunday 19.45 | BT Sport 1
Roberto Mancini is back in charge of Inter and what better way to get his second spell off and running than a win against bitter city rivals Milan? Sadly for Roberto (and punters), the Nerazzurri aren’t to be touched at 9/5 (BetVictor).
Mancini replaced Walter Mazzarri in the hot seat after a run of just two wins in seven matches for Inter (W2-D2-L3), including three defeats to sides currently in the bottom-half.
Inter are without Gary Medel today, are far too dependent on Argentine forward Mauro Icardi (who’s netted their last four Serie A goals) and have scored just twice on the road – at newly-promoted Palermo and Cesena.
What’s more, Inter’s record at top-half finishers last season was less than impressive for a supposedly big club – W3-D2-L4.
However, there are consistent trends surrounding the Goals market. Four of the Nerazzurri’s five away league games have produced fewer than three goals as well as eight of their most recent 12 Serie A away matches. Betfair have made the Under 2.5 Goals bet a 5/6 shot and that’s to be considered.
After an exciting opening to Pipo Inzaghi’s charge of Milan (9/5 BetVictor), they’ve since reverted to a more tactile and cautious style. It’s no wins in four now (D3-L1) for the Rossoneri and further back, it’s just two victories in nine – that’s despite facing just two sides currently in the top-nine.
The last four fixtures Inzaghi’s men have played at the San Siro have seen Under 2.5 Goals bank and that’s a trend that’s been seen in plenty of the most recent head-to-head clashes against their neighbours.
Milan derbies have seen Under 2.5 Goals in the last four showdowns as well as in seven of the latest nine. In fact, five of the last eight clashes, including three of the last four, have featured Under 1.5 Goals.
With that in mind, we’ll invest our faith in another low-scoring game and take the 5/6 from Betfair.
One other bet of note is the 17/10 from Ladbrokes for a sending off. The last 12 league derbies between these two teams have seen 11 red cards.