WITH two fixtures from League One taking place tonight, Mark O’Haire (@MarkOHaire) examines if there’s any value bets to be had for punters…
Leyton Orient v Preston | Tuesday 19.45
My pre-season tip for League One was Preston and the Lilywhites have clicked into gear in recent weeks, motoring up to second on the back of a six-game winning streak in the third tier. A win at Brisbane Road tonight would bring North End to within two points of table-topping Bristol City with a game in hand. I’m feeling a little giddy!
Simon Grayson’s men showed bags of character on Saturday in their come-from-behind victory at home to Fleetwood. The visitors took a two-goal lead at Deepdale before Joe Garner turned on the magic in the second 45 minutes, firing Preston to three points with a second-half hat-trick. That win will no doubt breed even more confidence into the Lilywhites who’ve now hit two or more goals in seven of their last eight league outings.
And Grayson’s men have proved their adapt at getting results on the road too. In five away games Preston have come away with three wins and three clean sheets. A 3-1 reverse at Walsall in mid-September is their only blemish – a match in which North End just failed to turn up. Tonight they visit a Leyton Orient side still recovering from the League One play-off final in May.
Mauro Milanese takes charge of Orient for the first time and will hope to end a barren streak in front of their home fans. The O’s have collected just two points from a possible 18 at Brisbane Road, failing to even net in half of those games. And Orient’s task looks even taller when you look at their absentees tonight. Darius Henderson is suspended, while Adam Legzdins, Romain Vincelot, David Mooney and Kevin Lisbie are all ruled out.
Preston can be backed at 7/5 with Paddy Power but I’m going to opt for the peculiar priced 1030/1000 with Ladbrokes on PNE -0.25 in the Asian Handicap – taking this selection, we’ll only lose half our stake should the game end in a draw and receive a full payout if the away side go home with all three points.
Chesterfield v Swindon | Tuesday 19.45
After flying out of the blocks, both Chesterfield and Swindon are experiencing relative lean spells in League One. The Spireits have recorded just one win in eight as manager Paul Cook chops and changes his side and the Robins are winless in three, having won four of their previous six. So rather than focus on a bet involving either side, I’m taking the 13/20 from Ladbrokes on Both Teams To Score.
Normally I wouldn’t venture below the 4/6 mark for a best bet but I believe the odds should be shorter and it’s a selection worth shouting about. Saturday’s defeat at Walsall was the first time in 10 league matches that Chesterfield had failed to score and Cook’s men boast just one clean sheet from 14 attempts since winning promotion last season. That’s led to 11/14 (78%) of their games seeing both sides get on the scoresheet with 5/6 at the Proact Stadium.
Swindon are just as potent in the BTTS columns. Having netted in 12/13 and leaked in 12/13, they’ve seen 11/13 (85%) of games feature Both Teams To Score winners. And going back to the start of last season and the beginning of Mark Cooper’s reign, 16/29 (55%) away league games have banked for BTTS backers with just four clean sheets!
Taking both sides records into account this season, the chance of another Both Teams To Score winner should equate to 81.5% – in betting terms, that’s a 1/5 shot. Ladbrokes are giving us 13/20 – the equivalent to a 65% chance. So it’s value – add it to any accumulator you’re thinking of backing tonight.