TUESDAY is the final night of Euro 2016 qualifiers in this series. Chris Graham (@chrisgraham79) has done the homework and picked out two bets he likes.
Gibraltar v Georgia | Tuesday 19:45 | Sky Sports Interactive
I’m a staunch defender of the minnows in international competition but my suscipion that Gibraltar really are as bad as it gets is beginning to look true. The newcomers have played two games so far in their Euro 2016 group and been beaten 7-0 both times. To be fair, Poland took time to break them down last month but Ireland’s 7-0 win on Saturday looked a walk in the park. Gibraltar don’t have the years of experience that the likes of the Faroe Islands have and that leaves them vulnerable.
Next up on their radar is Georgia. Temuri Ketsbaia’s side were disappointing on Saturday against Scotland despite only losing 1-0. This game though will give them a great chance to flex their muscles and you would think their players would be relishing the opportunity to knock up a few goals.
If you dip into the record books there’s not many games in Georgia’s history that compare to this. They were drawn with Malta in Euro 2012 qualifying and took four points out of six from them. Back in the qualifiers for Euro 2008, they went to the Faroe Islands and smashed six goals in the net.
Look a bit harder and you’ll also find some really impressive results from the nation. They drew with France in the last qualifiers and beat Belarus while in the Euro 2012 qualifiers they beat Croatia at home! Georgia are no mugs.
I’m intrigued to see how they’ll cope with a task like this, and I think they’re capable of scoring three or more goals. Georgia -2 is available at odds-against (11/10) with Paddy Power and that floats my boat.
Denmark v Portugal | Tuesday 19:45 | ITV4
This looks the best match taking place on Tuesday night and I think the bookmakers have priced it up wrong. Quite simply, they’re showing too much respect to Portugal. To see odds of 5/4 (Ladbrokes) on them winning look mighty skinny, even though they’ve just installed excellent former Greek coach Fernando Santos as their new boss.
Despite appearing in the last eight major tournaments, the Portuguese never seem to find qualifying particularly comfortable. They haven’t won a qualifying group since the World Cup 2006 prelims and have finished below Denmark in two of the last three campaigns. In recent years, they’ve drawn with Northern Ireland and Cyprus and lost to Norway.
And then let’s look at their record against Tuesday’s opponents. During those two campaigns, Denmark won two of the matches, drawing one and losing one. Both home matches were won and there’s no reason why they can’t win again here. Unlike Portugal, the Danes will be eager to get back to the top table of European football after missing out on Brazil. I expect their hunger to be stronger than their opponents.
The bet for me is an Asian Handicap one with BetVictor. It’s Denmark 0, that means that if they win I get paid out and if they draw I get my stake back. It’s just an extra bit of an insurance. I’m confident they won’t be beaten.
Gibraltar v Georgia – Georgia -2 (11/10 Paddy Power)
Denmark v Portugal – Denmark 0 Asian Handicap (9/7 BetVictor)
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