Young Boys vs Manchester United | Tuesday 14th September 2021, 17:55 | BT Sport
Manchester United travel to Bern for their first game in this season’s Champions League, seemingly in fine form and expecting a victory.
I don’t think they have been as impressive as the results suggests, however, and 2/5 on an away victory is not value in my book.
To date this season, United have won three and drawn one of their league games but a schedule of Leeds, Southampton, Wolves and Newcastle is not the most challenging and their most recent performances haven’t been great.
They were outplayed against Wolves – losing the shots, shots on target and expected goals stats – and looked pretty impotent against Newcastle before a couple of goalkeeping errors assisted them to victory.
Their opponents Young Boys have struggled domestically this season under the tutelage of David Wagner. Having won the league by 31 points last season, they currently find themselves fourth in the table, having gained just eight points from five games.
However, they have still managed to qualify for the Champions League, thanks to victories over FC Cluj and Ferencvaros. Across those four matches, they scored 10 and conceded six, suggesting that they are greater offensively than at the back.
Given United have allowed 45 shots against four sides (conceding in three of those matches) who are very unlikely to feature at the top end of the Premier League season this term, I don’t think you can expect a simple victory for the away side.
With this in mind I will firstly take two both teams to score angles. Firstly, BTTS outright at 17/20 with Unibet and then United to win and BTTS at 15/8 with Bet365 as ultimately I think United will have too much firepower for this opponent.
My final angle is Paul Pogba to be booked at 7/1 with Unibet. Pogba is playing a deeper role for United at present and is a bit of a defensive liability, as evidenced by three bookings in his first four league matches.
The referee on Tuesday night is Frenchman Francois Letexier, who dished out 114 cards in 28 games (4.1 per game) last term. If he is keeping up with that average tomorrow night, I would be confident that there is more than a 12.5% chance that one of those names is Paul Pogba.