World Football: Goal-shy game set for Mexico on Sunday

WORLD football fanatic James O'Rourke (@JamesOR1) continues his quest for global value with a selection of hand-picked best bets from across the planet on Sunday.

Bodo/Glimt v Stabaek | Sunday 15th September 2019, 17:00

It has been quite a remarkable season for Bodo/Glimt up until this point. When you consider they finished last season in 11th place, in a division containing 16-teams, and they find themselves in second spot after 20 games and only one point off the top, that is a transformation. They’ve become a real entertainer this season and they’re giving Molde a real fight at the top of the table.

Stabaek, on the other hand, are regulars towards the bottom end of this league, and they currently find themselves four points off the relegation spots.

Bodo/Glimt have caught the eyes on many in the European game just for the sheer amount of goals in their matches. Their league contests so far have averaged 3.80 goals, and games across the league overall average 2.94, so Bodo/Glimt really are the team to watch if goals are your thing.

For that to be the case and to be involved in a title push really is quite something. Even more so considering they’ve never won this league, having finished runners-up on three occasions.

Stabaek have actually conceded three goals fewer than their weekend opponents, yet they’ve scored 24 goals fewer; only 22 in total. This is the joint-fewest in the Norwegian top flight and their top scorer Ulrik Saltnes has been responsible for six of them. Bodo/Glimt on the other hand have three players with at least six goals to their name, with Hakon Evjen and Amor Layouni have nine each.

It won’t shock many to see Sunday’s hosts as odds-on favourites to secure another victory in their quest for a maiden Eliteserien crown. They top the form guide over the last 10 matches too, whilst they have a won eight, drew one and lost one home record to be proud of.

Stabaek don’t travel well, losing seven of nine, one of those wins coming at bottom side Stromsgodset. They’ve actually only lost once in five, but that came to Rosenborg, the only side in that period in the upper echelons of the table.

Bodo/Glimt tend to be strong starters. They’ve been leading at half time in 12/20, and 8/10 at home. Stabaek have actually been drawing at half time in exactly half of their games, which suggests that they look to sit back and look to frustrate. The issue is when trying to do that against a team like Bodo/Glimt, it is very risky. They’ve scored at least three in half of their home games, and at least two goals in 8/10.

Bodo/Glimt HT/FT is 6/5 (Bet365), and finding odds-against value like this in a bit of a mismatch like this has to be taken advantage of. Stabaek actually won the home meeting earlier this season, whilstBodo/Glimt are entering this on the back of a defeat, too. Double motivation to get one over their mid-table opponents could lead to them really putting their foot on the accelerator right from the very off.

Toluca v Monarcas | Sunday 15th September 2019, 18:00

We’re happy to have a play in the Mexican top-flight this weekend as struggling Toluca look to get back on track when entertaining Monarcas.

It most certainly has been a bit of a struggle for Toluca in this Apertura section of the season, with them winning only one of eight games. Only Veracruz are yet to win, and they sit bottom and one place below Toluca. Monarcas are only five-points better off, but are unbeaten in three, two of which were home victories.

Toluca therefore really need to be targeting maximum points from this one to really give them some momentum and a chance to climb the table. The big issue for them however is a lack of goals. They only have five to their name in those eight contests, with only Juarez achieving fewer in the division.

Considering Toluca scored 28 in their 17 Clausura matches at the end of last season, it is therefore quite a surprise to see them so shot shy in front of goal this time around. However, it is what it is, and they certainly need to improve in that aspect.

Monarcas have actually developed a handy ability of being quite hard to beat away from home. They’ve only lost three of their previous 11 on the road in all competitions, which is quite good for a team not expected to challenge anywhere near the top. They’ve only one of the previous seven meetings with Toluca however, so this is an opponent they have had their issues facing.

Without a doubt there is only one betting angle we can focus on looking into this particular game. That is goals, or the lack of them. Those expecting an entertaining, goal-laden affair this weekend should be disappointed if the form guide is anything to go by. Toluca has seen 7/8 end Under 2.5 Goals, whilst it reads 6/8 for Monarcas. Five of the last seven H2H actually ended O2.5, but Toluca aren’t in the best of frame right now compared to recent seasons.

Under 2.5 Goals is an 83/100 (Marathon) shot and the numbers alone suggest that there is a very good chance of it happening again. Toluca are in poor form, so confidence won’t be high and a nervy performance wouldn’t surprise anyone. Monarcas again will probably look to be hard to beat on the road and give very little away. A draw wouldn’t be bad for them at all.

Toluca’s league encounters are averaging 2.00 goals, whilst it jumps ever so slightly to 2.1 for games involving Monarcas. We’re probably building this up for a spectacular 4-4 game, but if it was to do so then it would go completely against the form. Neither side are near the top and whilst they’ll believe this is a game they can win, they could be fearful of potentially losing, which would cause much more damage.