WORLD football fanatic James O'Rourke (@JamesOR1) continues his quest for global value with a selection of hand-picked best bets from across the planet on Saturday.
Pohang Steelers v Ulsan Hyundai | Saturday 6th June 2020, 11:00
Whilst we may only be four games into the Korean K League 1 campaign, we have a top-four battle on our hands on Saturday for us to enjoy. It is a contest which, on paper at least, promises to deliver in a good way as Pohang Steelers entertain Ulsan Hyundai.
Ulsan, who finishes as runners-up last season, may be higher in the table than Pohang but they arguably come into this contest the more frustrated of the two. They may be unbeaten, but back-to-back draws against opponents they would normally expect to defeat in the form of Busan and Gwangju won’t have pleased them.
Pohang on the other hand responded perfectly to a home loss to Seoul but hammering Incheon United 4-1 away from home last weekend. That should put them in a good frame of mind for this tricky home assignment, and ironically that was their biggest margin of win since they last faced Ulsan, which saw them earn a great 4-1 win in their final match of last season.
Now of course it isn’t a massive sample size when we are only referring to four games but there are already some notable numbers concerning these two clubs. Ulsan and Pohang are positioned numbers one and two respectively in terms of chances created, so both clearly possess plenty of threat in and around the final third.
Both are also positioned joint-second in terms of shots on target, and also two and four respectively purely based on numbers of attempts on goal. Both have similarities and are clearly offensively-minded.
Ulsan are a team I have watched quite close for quite a good while now and for all they are a threat going forward, they don’t half take some chances defensively. Practically every game I watch involving them seems to take a similar approach
. A common theme is that they end games strongly and are known for their late goals, but quite often that is because they are having to produce comebacks or ultimately make-up for defensive shortcomings from earlier in the game.
They often get away with it playing at home, but on the road it is less likely to prove successful. Just three clean sheets in their last 21 away in all competitions highlights probably why they’re struggling to overcome Jeonbuk Motors as the outright number one team at this level.
Both teams are seeing averages of at least three goals per game four matches in, and I anticipate plenty of chances at either end one more. I think Over 2.5 Goals has to be a worthy consideration, especially at 1/1 (Bet365).
Wehen v Dynamo Dresden | Saturday 6th June 2020, 12:00
We have ourselves a bottom of the table dogfight on our hands this weekend as the bottom two of Wehen and Dynamo Dresden take to the field. Both are in desperate need of three points to boost their chances of getting out of trouble.
Wehen returned from lockdown by beating promotion hopefuls Stuttgart, but have since followed that up with three consecutive defeats. They’re only two points behind Karlsruher, who occupy the relegation/promotion slot, whilst just four points from Nurnberg, who are outside the drop zone.
It looks a little bleaker for Dresden as they’re four points adrift at the bottom. They returned to action later than everyone else in the league following a coronavirus outbreak, and back-to-back defeats leaves them feeling a little sorry for themselves.
Both teams are obviously at the bottom of the standings for a reason and although there is the obvious lack of crowd it is still expected to be quite a tense affair at BRITA-Arena on Saturday afternoon. You’d think more pressure will be on Dresden considering they are indeed bottom and defeat here would be ever so costly.
Wehen are probably in a better place considering that they did at least beat Stuttgart recently and although it was followed up by three losses, that also includes clashes with Hamburg and Heidenheim, meaning Wehen has faced three of the top four in the space around two weeks.
Dresden had to fit in a midweek clash a few days ago and the 3-0 away loss at Hannover was most disappointing. They were 2-0 down inside 17 minutes and 3-0 behind at half time. They’ve now got to firmly put that behind them and get back on track.
I said both teams are near the bottom for a reason and the pretty glaringly obvious concern is how both teams struggle in front of goal. It makes bad reading for Dresden, who by far and away have had the least shots of any team in the league. Wehen are second from bottom in that respective statistic as well, so both seemingly have issues in terms of creativity.
Dresden are also joint-bottom for percentage of chances taken, whilst Wehen are around the mid-table mark, so they don’t necessarily need as many chances to score. Each team are also in the bottom three in terms of shots on target. Clearly these two are rather timid in attack.
The basic numbers of how many goals they are scoring backs that up as well. Dresden haven’t scored since resuming action, whilst Wehen have failed to net in two of their past three. With this likely to be a cagey game, I can only see another low-scoring affair taking place.
Sure, these two are also near the bottom because they concede plenty of goals, but confidence won’t be high and I can’t see much free-flowing football occurring too often.
Under 2.5 Goals being priced at 21/20 (Sportingbet) represents decent value in this bottom two battle.
Best Bets
Pohang Steelers v Ulsan Hyundai – Over 2.5 Goals (1/1 Bet365)
Wehen v Dynamo Dresden – Under 2.5 Goals (21/20 Sportingbet)
