NEW WLB contributor James O'Rourke (@JamesOR1) looks to continue his fabulous form with a selection of hand-picked best bets from across the planet on Saturday.
Stromsgodset v Haugesund | Saturday 6th October 2018, 17:00
I must admit, I am slightly surprised I am stumbling across odds-on quotes for Stromsgodset this weekend.
To their credit, they head into this on the back of a solid 1-0 away victory over Sarpsborg 08, who are in the Europa League, but they’ve lost seven in a row in all competitions, so perhaps that isn’t as impressive if it came earlier in the campaign.
Stromsgodset did manage to knock Haugesund out of the domestic cup recently too, so that is perhaps where the price is originating from. The league table does not lie though, especially 24 games into a 30-match season. Stromsgodset are battling relegation, whilst Haugesund are firmly in contention for a Europa League spot.
We cannot deny that the Marienlyst Stadion is a happy hunting ground for Haugesund – they have not won at that venue since 2003. They were on a four-match losing streak prior to their recent triumph over Bodo-Glimt, but that success leaves them two-points behind Molde in third.
Haugesund only staved off relegation by seven points last season, whilst Stromsgodset finished a point short of European qualification. It is very much a case of roles reversed this time around.
Stromsgodset do have the Eliteserien top scorer in the form of Marcus Pedersen in their ranks, but it is almost two months since he found the back of the net. Also, the hosts have a home record which is only worsened by bottom of the table Sandefjord, winning once in their last five in all competitions in front of their own supporters.
Haugesund have lost back-to-back away matches, one being 1-0 against league leaders Rosenborg, but only top two Rosenborg and Brann have collected more points in their travels.
Stromsgodset are desperate for points to extend their three-point gap to the relegation places, but Haugesund have their own agenda and simply cannot be so easily overlooked.
Only Rosenborg have conceded fewer on the road, and the open nature of Stromsgodset will present the away side with some openings.
The 10/11 (Boylesports) on offer for Haugesund Double Chance looks too good to ignore, especially with them sitting fifteen points better off than their opponents.
Young Boys v Luzern | Saturday 6th October 2018, 18:00
The current Swiss Super League champions endured a tough night in Turin in midweek; falling 3-0 to Juventus in an expected defeat. That followed up the 3-0 loss to Manchester United on matchday one, meaning their Champions League hopes are resting on a double-header with Valencia.
Young Boys have no such troubles domestically however, as they sit proudly at the top of the table with a 100% record – Nine wins from nine, and lead Zurich by 12-points. They’ll drop points at some stage, but it is not likely to be this weekend when Luzern come to town.
Luzern head into this clash after losing to then bottom of the table Sion 3-1. Their performance on the day was quite simply abysmal, and they were unfortunate not to concede more than they did.
Young Boys therefore are the last side they will want to face right now; a team that have already scored 32 times.
Goals are normally on the agenda when Young Boys play, especially at their Stade de Suisse home with their artificial pitch. Overall, they’ve viewed an average of 4.2 goals in their games, an average which increases to 4.6 when playing at home. Twenty out their 32 goals have been in front of their passionate fans too and Gerardo Seoane will be expected another commanding display.
The last six head-to-head meetings make for grim reading for the most ardent of Luzern supporters as all have ended in defeat. Another interesting statistic is that three of the last 26 would have seen Both Teams To Score pay off. This will only pay off 4/7 at best, so extra value is found elsewhere.
Clearly Young Boys are the angle we are going for here, and there are plenty of ways which we can get involved. For example, 5/6 (Sportingbet) pays out if Young Boys to score in both halves – this has happened in 78% of their league games so far.
Also, we can get some joy the on Young Boys to win and Over 2.5 Goals at 3/4 (Coral). Both teams can say 67% have included Over 2.5 Goals, and Young Boys are clearly the best team in the league so we have to keep them onside for a good while yet.
Sint-Truiden v Royal Excel Mouscron | Saturday 6thOctober 2018, 19:00
Stayen plays hosts to Sint-Truiden versus Royal Excel Mouscron in the Belgian Jupiler Pro League on Saturday night, and a tight contest is envisaged. Let’s set the scene; nine games into the season and it is fair to say that both outfits and enjoying different fortunes so far.
Sint-Truiden, or De Kanaries to locals, find themselves only outside the top-six Championship Group on goal difference. They head into this on the back of a fine 0-0 draw away in Anderlecht, and won their three before that, also inflicting Gent’s first home loss of the campaign.
Mouscron are firmly bottom of the division, losing seven of their nine, and just like last season, another campaign of struggle looks very likely.
The form guide only really points to one winner here. The hosts have won the last two head-to-head meetings in front of their own supporters, and anything less than three points would be a surprise.
However, whilst Mouscron do indeed root the league standings at this stage, they have been competitive in most of their games. Four of their seven losses have only been by a one-goal margin, including against big two Club Brugge and Anderlecht.
It was a 3-0 defeat last time out at Waasland-Beveren, but they were unbeaten in the three prior to this in all competitions. Besides a loss in late August to Standard Liege, Sint-Truiden are unbeaten.
The straight win for Marc Brys’ men is best priced at 3/5, but there has to be more value found in a game of this nature. Only league leaders Club Brugge and Antwerp, who sit fourth, can say them have conceded fewer goals than Sint-Truiden, who have drawn five of their nine matches to further enhance their claims of being a tough nut to crack.
These days, Mouscron are managed by former Hungary boss Bernd Storck, and clearly he has set about trying to make them harder to beat, with limited success so far.
Mouscron have only netted three goals in their nine Pro League encounters so far. Given how Sint-Truiden concede very few anyway, it is likely that Storck will set his team up to try and take a point, and maybe pinch something on the break or via a set piece.
Sint-Truiden have out-shot their opponents in their last three at home, so they’ll certainly go all-out for victory.
The last three head-to-head meetings have ended 1-0 either way, and whilst Sint-Truiden will push to win, they could endure a frustrating night unless they can score an early goal. We can get odds-against on Under 2.5 Goals at 32/25 (Marathon), which is a fine way to get involved in this confrontation.
Both teams have also witnessed six of their nine games so far end below this line, averaging 2.1 and 1.8 goals per-game respectively.
Chapecoense-SC v Atletico Mineiro | Saturday 6th October 2018, 20:00
As things stand, Chapecoense are facing relegation into Serie B in the face; they sit in the drop zone with only 11 games remaining. Perhaps the last thing they wanted to see was Atletico Mineiro, the highest scorers in the Brazilian Serie A, turn up on Saturday night.
However, there is still some cause for hope in the case of Chapecoense. Atletico, shortly known as CAM, may sit in sixth spot but the title is still a possibility.
The top-six are separated by only eight points, so Thiago Larghi knows a few positive results in succession could give them a real chance of winning the Campeonato for the second time, the first being in 1971.
Of course, the tragic events of November 2016 are still very much in the memory of every football supporter when a plane carrying Chapecoense to the Copa Sudamerican final crashed, with only three members of the team surviving.
They are starting to build some foundations again, as only eight of their squad are on loan. Guto Ferreira returned to the club in August looking to save their season. Since then, he has managed to double the amount of victories they achieved before then in the campaign.
All three wins have come at Arena Conda and they have quite a positive record here. Only twice have they suffered defeat, including last time out versus mid-table Fluminense.
For five home games running, Chapecoense have seen the 2.5 goal line beaten, whilst there has been an average of 3.00 goals scored in CAM’s away fixtures in the division as well.
A case can be made for goals here, but given that Chapecoense drew the joint-most matches of any side in Serie A, there is the nagging fear it may turn tight. However, there is still a way we can play this game and also have goals on side.
77% of Chapecoense’s home matches has seen them Both Teams To Score bank – 69% of the time, this has happened to Atletico-MG on the road too. These figures are simply too hard to ignore.
There is motivation from both sides in that they need to avoid relegation and fight for the title respectively. Only 8% of the time have Chapecoense not scored in a home game, whilst only three times have CAM not scored on their travels.
Both Teams To Score supplies a handy 20/23 (Ladbrokes), and the statistics suggest that this really should pay-out.
Best Bets
Stromsgodset v Haugesund – Haugesund double chance (10/11 Boylesports)
Young Boys v Luzern – Young Boys to win and Over 2.5 Goals (3/4 Coral)
Young Boys v Luzern – Young Boys to score in both halves (5/6 Sportingbet)
Sint-Truiden v Royal Excel Mouscron – Under 2.5 Goals (32/25 Marathon)
Chapecoense v Atletico Mineiro – Both Teams To Score (20/23 Ladbrokes)
