VALUE-HUNTER Daniel McCulloch (@DMcCulloch1984) shares his best bets from Super Sunday's showdown at Molineux.
Wolves vs Leicester | Sunday 20th February 2022, 16:30 | Sky Sports
At first glance, I thought the 13/10 on offer for Wolves to win this encounter looked good value but having looked at the underlying data, I find it harder to put together a case for the home side winning at Molineux.
Wolves find themselves seventh in the league and recorded an impressive victory at Tottenham last time out but I don’t think their overall performances have been quite as notable as the league table suggests. They’ve only conceded 17 goals but while they have been very solid at the back, their expected goals conceded total is 29, which shows just how dependable Andre Sa has been in goal.
Leicester’s problems are obvious…they concede too many goals, with only four Premier League sides allowing more than their tally of 41 from 22 games. Despite this, I feel that there is more than enough data to back under 2.5 goals at 4/5 with Boylesports.
Under 2.5 goals has landed in 18 of Wolves 23 matches and while it has only landed in seven of Leicester’s 22, the head-to-head record suggests that goals will be at a premium.
There have been just two goals in the last five matches between these two and given that Brendan Rodgers has been Leicester boss for all of those encounters (and Wolves under Bruno Lage seem to have a similar defensive record to the side under Nuno Espirito Santo) so I see little reason to expect a goalfest here.
Alongside this, given three of the last five matches have ended 0-0, the 9/1 with Bet365 on No Goalscorer is too big to turn down.
Wolves vs Leicester – Under 2.5 Goals (4/5 Boylesports)
Wolves vs Leicester – No Goalscorer (9/1 Bet365)