WOLVES welcome Everton to Molineux on Super Sunday. Matthew Kirby (@M_Kirby95) delivers his betting analysis.
Wolves v Everton | Sunday 12th July 2020, 12:00 | Sky Sports
A bumper Super Sunday starts at Molineux as Wolves remain in the hunt for a European place.
Nuno Espirito Santo won’t have been too impressed with what his side have produced in their last couple of games falling to defeats against Arsenal and Sheffield United. Those two losses have seen them fail to score and register just one shot on target in each. That dip in performance has seen them fall behind Champions League contention meaning it’s likely to be a Europa League spot they’ll be vying for over the next two weeks.
Everton, on the other hand, are just seeing the season out with Carlo Ancelotti able to cast his eye over this Toffees squad assessing who he wants to keep and get shut off ahead of next season.
It’s just one defeat in five since the restart, which came in that insipid effort against Spurs that would have left Ancelotti angry by the lack of effort and quality on show.
Things have improved since the Italian maestro took over with the Toffees now averaging 1.53 points per game from seven wins, five draws and five defeats. Under his stewardship, they’ll surely be much-improved next season with plenty of these younger players learning plenty.
The likes of Richarlison and Dominic Calvert-Lewin could well flourish while it’s good to see youngster Anthony Gordon given a chance to stake a claim for a place in the team next season.
The betting angles
I found this a bit of a tricky game to try and pick the bones out of, but I’ve got two bets at even-money lined up. I’ll start with backing Everton or Draw and Under 4 Goals in a Bet Builder on Bet365.
Wolves’ lack of creativity in recent games has been a source of frustration for Nuno and the shoulder injury to Adama Traore may limit his game time here. But the points they’ve picked up so far have been down to moments of brilliance from Traore to set-up Raul Jimenez. The first at West Ham and the winner against Bournemouth that have seen Old Gold pick up valuable victories.
However, as stated above, it’s just two shots on target in their last two games with Expected Goals For outputs of just: 0.91xGF, 1.07xGF, 0.64xGF, 1.02xGF, 0.48xGF.
At Molineux, you’d expect Wolves to be strong. However, you would be mistaken. It’s just six wins in 17 home games with five of those being against sides 16th and lower. Their only real scalp is that of Man City.
Although Everton have only picked up 15 points on the road this season, they can come here and frustrate a Wolves side that hasn’t been as fluent since the restart. Under 4 Goals has won in 15/17 Wolves home games and 11/17 for Everton on the road.
We’ve seen Wolves drifting ever so slightly in the 1×2 market in the last few days, and I’m keen to take them on. If Everton are on a going day, then they can take this game to the hosts and continue to improve under Ancelotti whose tactical knowledge could help stifle the key Wolves threats.
The other angle I’m taking is one that has proved profitable quite recently. And, that’s 2+ Matt Doherty tackles. I’m surprised to see it at evens yet again. It’s copped in nine of his last 10 appearances since the start of February, with the only game it didn’t come in against an ultra-defensive West Ham on the restart weekend.
The Irish international is likely to come against Anthony Gordon and Lucas Digne. We know have the Everton left-back likes to get forward, so that should give Doherty the chance to keep his fine tackling record going.
With a big man up top in Calvert-Lewin then this left side could be crucial to their chances of creating headed chances for the young forward. 37% of the Toffees play comes down their left, so the evens available is something worth taking.
Southampton right-back Kyle Walker-Peters made two tackles on Thursday against Everton, as did Leicester’s James Justin, while Norwich’s Max Aarons made four against the Toffees showing opposition right-backs do make the necessary tackles for this bet.
One bet that I did consider was Romain Saiss passes. 50+ is 17/20 on Pokerstars, which is pretty much bang-on his seasonal average. A quick look sees it land in four of their last five and it should go close once more with Wolves likely to have the majority of possession.
However, these two even-money bets take the eye in what should be a close game.