THE BUNDESLIGA continues on Saturday and Matthew Kirby (@M_Kirby95) shares his research for Borussia Dortmund's testing trip to Wolfsburg.
Wolfsburg v Borussia Dortmund | Saturday 23rd May, 2:30pm | BT Sport
Borussia Dortmund continue on their quest to reel in Bayern Munich at the top of the Bundesliga. Their deficit is four points with a potential title-deciding clash between the two on Tuesday.
But first, Lucien Favre’s men travel to Wolfsburg fresh from a 4-0 thrashing of Schalke in the Revierderby – a game where they scored with every shot on target.
Wolfsburg also won on their Bundesliga’s return with Daniel Ginczek netting a last-gasp winner at Augsburg. That’s strengthened their claims for the Europa League qualifiers spot ahead of a number of clubs.
Expected Goals data
Augsburg 1.24xG v 1.38xG Wolfsburg (1-2)
Dortmund 1.45xG v 0.35xG Schalke (4-0)
Wolfsburg 40.39xG (scored 36)
Dortmund 51.03xG (scored 72)
Wolfsburg 29.45xGA (conceded 31)
Dortmund 32.36xGA (conceded 33)
The betting angles
How do Wolfsburg contain and resist some of the irresistible build-up play we saw from Dortmund as they dispatched of Schalke?
Some of the link up play between Erling Håland, Thorgan Hazard, Julian Brandt and Raphael Guerreiro was ruthless and the finishing devastating – with the help of some suspect goalkeeping.
Once they beat the first press from Schalke, they had plenty of joy. And Wolfsburg will have to be careful not to fall into the same trap. However, the Expected Goals (xG) data above would suggest they are massively over achieving in the opposition box.
Wolfsburg do have one of the best defensive records in the league with only Bayern Munich and RB Leipzig conceding fewer goals. Plus, they do restrict their opponents to just 11 shots per game.
In home games, Wolfsburg have just an xG gols against at 1.07xGA showing they do prove dogged defensively and difficult to breakdown. While Monchengladbach and Leipzig have both failed to leave the Volkswagen Arena with three points.
Glasner’s men have drawn six of their 13 home games, but they’ve got a different beast to try and stop here. This Dortmund team is already strong, so with Jadon Sancho likely to return to the starting XI, that will only bolster that.
Their three home defeats have only been by narrow margins, so it might be worth looking towards their defensive resilience keeping this a low scoring game.
Backing the visitors to notch another win against Die Wolfe looks a fair price, but boost it with unders on the goals to boost the price.
It’ll be worth looking into the tackles markets here too. Both Wolfsburg full-backs and holding midfielders – Paulo Otavio, Kevin Mbabu, Xaver Schlager and Maxi Arnold – all completed four tackles each last weekend.
That quartet are likely to have their work cut out once more against this attack-minded Dortmund side.
Mbabu is 10/11 for 4+, which looks fair given who he’ll be up against and some of his stats. It’s similar for Schlager who is 8/13 for 3+ tackles with Coral, yet his stats aren’t the most compelling.
However, if Maxi Arnold continues in a slightly deeper role then his tackle bar looks more appealing. Trying to break up wave after wave after Dortmund attack makes the 7/4 on 3+ tackles appealing – something he managed a few times at the back end of 2019, plus last weekend.
For Die Schwarzgelben, Raphael Guerreiro could be underestimated by the bookies. He’s made 2+ tackles in eight of 19 games he’s played 45+ minutes, with some big numbers in there.
2+ tackles (3/4) and 3+ tackles (9/4) will both give you a run for your money, especially with the way Dortmund were able to win the ball back against Schalke. In that one, the 26-year-old completed five of six tackles. His third highest amount of the season after eight v Leverkusen and six v Paderborn. Both of these prices look generous.
Wolfsburg v Borussia Dortmund – Dortmund to win and Under 3.5 Goals (9/5 Coral)
Wolfsburg vBorussia Dortmund – Maxi Arnold 3+ tackles (7/4 Coral)
Wolfsburg v Borussia Dortmund – Raphael Guerreiro 2+ tackles (3/4 Coral)
Wolfsburg v Borussia Dortmund – Raphael Guerreiro 3+ tackles (9/4 Sky Bet)