TENNIS analyst Gavin Mair (@gavinnightmair) returns with his best bets from day seven at Wimbledon.
Last time out we landed two for two when Dominika Cibulkova and Alison Van Uytvanck cruised to respective victories over Elise Mertens and Annett Kontaveit.
The first week provided four (five – depending on whether you made money on the advised Bemelmans trade) winning days from a possible six. Let’s hope the business end of Wimbledon provides similar fortune.
Julia Goerges v Donna Vekic | Monday 9th July 2018, 13:00 | BBC
In this match I am siding with grass court specialist Donna Vekic to advance at the expense of Julia Goerges.
At the outset of the tournament I was keen to keep Vekic on side and in my Day 1 article I mentioned that I had considered backing her to win her quarter at 50/1.
I was put off the idea by a reported lower back injury, but that has not been a factor in her impressive run to this point. How I wish I had taken the 50/1 – which will land if Vekic beats Goerges and then the robotic Karolina Pliskova, who incidentally remains my only active outright bet.
For me, Donna Vekic is a superior player on a grass court to Julia Goerges. The German is a power player but her game lacks the subtlety of a Plan B and I am not convinced her plan A is working at full speed. Goerges has progressed to this round with far inferior performance data than Vekic, despite being a seeded player with the luxury of easier draws.
Not only do I see Vekic as the bigger talent on grass but I can find several other reasons to oppose Goerges.
Goerges is 8 years the senior of Vekic yet has never progressed to a Grand Slam quarterfinal in her career identifying her as having a definable ability ceiling. Furthermore, for a player of Goerges ranking her win/loss record in Grand Slam matches is poor at 50/50.
In the Day 1 article I mentioned that Vekic looks an improved prospect this season from the last. The Croatian moves a lot more smoothly and it will count in her favour when she meets the oft-wooden Goerges. When the pair met last year on an indoor surface Goerges was an easy winner in what were perfect playing conditions for Goerges. The shoe looks to be on the other foot this time round.
The players should know each other fairly well as Goerges spoke in her pre-match comments that they practice a lot together.
Finally, Goerges required a visit from the physio in her three set victory over Barbora Strycova.
Vekic looks a good bet at 23/20 with Unibet
John Isner v Stefanos Tsitsipas | Monday 9th July 2018, 14:30 | BBC
The big serving duo John Isner and Stefanos Tsitsipas look set to serve up a close encounter in their Round of 16 clash.
When they met in their only career meeting to date on a fast indoor court in Shanghai neither player could break serve resulting in two tiebreaks. The loser on that occasion, Tsitsipas, arguably was the better player creating 5 break points compared to Isner’s none, but as has been the case so far during Wimbledon the giant Isner serve is sometimes impossible to break.
Isner has not yet had his serve broken throughout the whole tournament and is hitting a ridiculous 2 Aces in every service game on average.
Tsitsipas has revealed that he is already practicing tiebreakers in preparation for this match and that is where the best bet in this match can be found. Hopefully, both players will arrive on court fully focussed and hold their serve in the early stages.
A set one tiebreak can be backed at 10/11 with Boylesports.
Julia Goerges v Donna Vekic – Donna Vekic to win (23/20 Unibet)
John Isner v Stefanos Tsitsipas – A tiebreak in set one (10/11 Boylesports)