TENNIS analyst Gavin Mair (@gavinnightmair) returns with his best bets from day five at Wimbledon.
The 4th day of Wimbledon proved to be a frustrating one.
Ruben Bemelmans came very close to landing our 10/3 bet on the resumption of play when he held two match points on the Isner serve. Isner responded by hitting two massive serves, and with that action crushed the morale of Bemelmans who dropped his serve in the very next game to decide the match in Isner’s favour. If you heeded my warning in yesterday’s article then hopefully you settled for the small profit available at the start of Thursday’s play.
Tennis matches are often decided on tight margins, as my two suggested bets for Thursday demonstrated. Both players were competitive but squandered their opportunities to win the key third sets of their matches.
Pierre-Hugues Herbert lost his concentration in the third set – just as he seemed to be getting the better of his young opponent – and never recovered. To his credit, Alex De Minaur was tenacious and never allowed Herbert an easy service game throughout the contest.
Bernard Tomic similarly lost in four sets. The Aussie started strongly but failed to take his set point chances in the third set, which ultimately decided the match.
The fifth day of Wimbledon sees fewer matches – and a lot of match ups with a heavy, yet justified favourite, or with matches that could foreseeably go either way. I propose backing players pre-match at value prices, and only one match leaps out at me from Friday’s card.
My wildcard thought for the day is that at the end of Day 5 – and against the advice of my data – I wouldn’t be surprised to see one or both of the Williams sisters depart from the tournament given their very questionable form. I am not advising a pre-match bet against either Venus or Serena, however, if you see the name “Williams” at what appears to be a nice price then tread carefully!
Which brings me on to Friday’s best bet…
Adrian Mannarino v Daniil Medvedev | Friday 6th July 2018, 15:00 | BBC
As the odds suggest there is not a huge deal between this pair. However, on the balance of evidence I feel more of an edge should be given to Adrian Mannarino.
Daniil Medvedev is undoubtedly the player possessing the more talented skill-set but so far he has struggled to turn his talent into wins on a consistent basis, and especially in the Grand Slams, where this 3rd round match with Mannarino marks his best effort in a major so far.
His opponent on the other hand is a steady-eddy. He does the simple things well and enjoys the to and fro of a rally. Mannarino has never won a tour title but is often there or thereabouts, and with his talent level he is doing very well to be found in a seeded position.
Overall Mannarino doesn’t have the best Grand Slam record but at Wimbledon he is a different beast making a couple of 4th round showings in recent years and a win here would allow the Frenchman to once again repeat that feat.
The pair have met on two occasions and on each Mannarino has won with a great deal of comfort proving comfortable with this particular match up. Mannarino can extend rallies when he needs to and keeps the ball quite low, which has not been pleasant for the tall Russian.
At slightly odds against there is reason to side with the proven steadier player than the enigmatic shotmaker, who hasn’t got to grips with Mannarino in the past.
Back Mannarino to get the better of Medvedev once again at 21/20 with Betfair.
Adrian Mannarino v Daniil Medvedev – Adrian Mannarino to win (21/20 Betfair)