VALUE-HUNTER Daniel McCulloch (@DMcCulloch1984) shares his best bets from Thursday night's Premier League clash at The Emirates.
Arsenal vs Wolves | Thursday 24th February 2022, 19:45
Wolves return to the capital less than 72 hours after a devastating late defeat to Arsenal and I can see a similar outcome at The London Stadium on Sunday afternoon.
While there are just two points between these two in the table, the underlying data shows a greater gulf between the two sides, with Wolves winning a lot of close encounters that may easily have gone the other way.
Indeed, while the manner of the defeat against Arsenal was galling for Wolves fans, they cannot deny that their opponents deserved the victory, as The Gunners won the shot count 26-6 and the expected goals battle 2.5-1.1.
Scoring goals has been a problem for Wolves all season, with just 15 from open play and 24 in total. By contrast, West Ham have scored 45 and while the away side have a greater defensive record, it is the attacking potency of West Ham that lends me to back them.
11/10 might seem fair based on league position and home advantage but as I said previously, underlying data suggests that The Hammers should be around nine points clear of their opponents and given that and the additional attacking threat, I am happy happy take the 11/10 with Betfred on a home win.
I did consider the likes of Jarrod Bowen in goalscorer markets and also a 1-0 home victory but I am simply going to repeat Thursday night's bet and back Wolves to lose by a single goal. Seven of their nine losses this season have come by the odd goal and I think the 11/4 with Unibet on West Ham to win by one goal is a safer play that a 1-0 home win.
