At first glance I am wondering why West Ham aren't a max bet at 4/5. Results are one thing but performances are far more important and Everton's under Frank Lampard – with the odd exception – have been woeful.
Everton's best recorded xG in their last five league matches was 0.65, in their 1-0 home victory to Newcastle. Across that five game sample they've scored one goal and conceded nine but the big concern for them is that the performance data suggests that the three points they've gained from that sample is more than fair.
Their opponents West Ham have earned seven points from their last five matches but the two defeats have been against Liverpool and Tottenham away from home.
I do have concerns about The Hammers ability to score goals as while top scorer Jarrod Bowen is back in full training, I am not certain he will be risked this weekend, especially with a big Europa League tie on Thursday. Striker Michail Antonio has a poor recent goalscoring record and the stats suggest he isn't getting many chances either.
However, there are few Premier League defences as porous as Everton's at the moment so I am more than happy to take the 4/5 with Coral on the home side to win. They've got 48 points to their opponents 25 this season and the underlying data suggests that this is a fair reflection of the difference between the two sides.
West Ham's Europa League game against Lyon on Thursday will be on the minds of fans and players but I don't see wholesale changes for this game, particularly as they've not played for a fortnight.
Elsewhere, I'm liking the 15/4 with Betway on Tomas Soucek to score anytime for West Ham. The Czech International has scored 17 in 79 Premier League appearances for The Hammers and is facing a side who rank among the bottom five in terms of goals conceded from set pieces.
With Antonio struggling for goals, Soucek seems to have stepped up in recent weeks – witness his goal against Sevilla – and I think he could well do the same in this encounter.