West Ham vs Everton | Saturday 9th May 2021, 16:30 | Sky Sports
A huge game is ahead in East London on Sunday afternoon, with West Ham needing a win to get within two points of a Champions League place, knowing that they have far easier fixtures remaining fourth placed Leicester.
Everton also have European aspirations but the Toffees are less realistic, with Carlo Ancelotti's side needing to win every remaining fixture to have any chance of Champions League football next season. The Europa League is more likely for them but I definitely get the feeling than West Ham's need is greater.
The Hammers have been on a strange run recently. David Moyes has a reputation of producing defensive minded sides yet there have been 25 goals in their last six league matches. In that run, West Ham have scored 14 goals, had two players sent off, lost a three goal lead and threatened to lose the same margin of victory on two further occasions.
Everton have been similarly inconsistent and six points from their last seven matches have made Champions League qualification look very unlikely. In truth, I think the league table is simply looking more honest. Their expected points total is just 44, eight fewer than they've actually managed and I do not think they'll be leaving East London having added to their points tally.
West Ham to win outright did interest me but from value perspective, I prefer the 7/2 with Betfair on The Hammers to win and both sides finding the net. Such a bet would have left you in profit in nine of the home sides 17 leagues victories this term, including three of their last five matches.
Ultimately I expect West Ham to win, with Jesse Lingard and Michail Antonio causing the Everton backline plenty of problems but I do also feel like Dominic Calvert-Lewin and Richarlison will have success against what looks like quite an immobile Hammers defence.
Elsewhere, I like the look of Mason Holgate at 3/1 to be shown a card. Holgate has eight bookings in 23 league games this season and is going to be facing up to Michail Antonio, who I think can bully the Everton centre half. The referee is Stuart Attwell who has averaged 3.65 cards per game this term (league average is 2.88), which gives me further confidence that Holgate will find himself in the referee's notebook.