West Ham vs Brighton | Sunday 27th December 2020, 14:15 | Sky Sports
Graham Potter’s under pressure Brighton travel to the London Stadium to face off with David Moyes’ West Ham who have pleasantly surprised their own fan base by operating in the top half of the division for the majority of the season thus far.
It has been a question of what might have been for the Seagulls; they have had the opportunities to win almost every game they have played but in unfortunate circumstances find themselves looking over their shoulders in 17th place. The Hammers come in as favourites however, the visitors Expected Goals (xG) underperformance is not sustainable, their luck will turn around at some point.
One of the most alarming under-performances in terms of xG in all over Europe this season has been that of Brighton. Their xG process ranks them fifth yet they sit one place above the relegation zone.
The Seagulls have scored just 16 goals from 22.3 xG, Danny Welbeck, Neal Maupay and Aaron Connolly have not been at all clinical, Tony Bloom needs to add attacking reinforcements in the January transfer window. They have also conceded 22 goals from 16.9 xG, seeing Matthew Ryan dropped from in between the sticks in recent weeks.
West Ham have been a little lucky and were on the back of a 3-0 beating in a London derby at Chelsea last time out. Tomas Soucek has been a key player in central midfield, setting the tone with his aggressive break up play and surging forward runs.
We may see a slight regression from the Hammers, their attacking process is sustainable, scoring 21 from 20.8 expected and letting in 19 from 20.9 xG. They rank 13th in terms of xG compared to 10th, having flirted with the European places this term.
The betting angles
Both teams to score looks an excellent punt and provides value at around 3/4 with most bookies.
- West Ham have scored in nine of 10.
- West Ham have conceded in eight of 10.
- West Ham have seen both teams score in seven of 10.
- West Ham have seen over 2.5 goals in six of 10.
- Brighton have scored in seven of 10.
- Brighton have conceded in seven of 10.
- Brighton have seen both teams score in seven of 10.
- Brighton have seen over 2.5 goals in four of 10.
Brighton’s luck will turn around if they continue their excellent process, this weekend could be the day.