ALEX JONES (@AlexJ0nes9) analyses the odds as West Brom entertain Southampton in the Premier League on Monday.
West Brom vs Southampton | Monday 12th April 2021, 18:00 | Sky Sports
West Brom have another must win game on Monday as they host Southampton. It’s a shame it is on a Monday though, as their four wins have all come on Saturdays.
Sam Allardyce said The Baggies need to win nearly all of their games left to stay in the division, and that got off to a great start at Stamford Bridge last time out.
Their main man when they won 5-2 in the capital was Matheus Pereira. The Brazilian scored two and assisted two in a perfect performance.
Pereira has seven goals this campaign in a struggling West Brom side, so I’m surprised to see their top scorer priced at 16/5 to score anytime. It’s around 15/8 elsewhere so a standout price with Betfair.
Saints have lost 6 of their last 7 on the road, conceding 23 goals in the process. They have conceded at least one goal in 12/15 away from home this season and I’d expect to see them leak a goal here.
I’ve also took Pereira to score a brace at 22/1 with Betfair and the hat-trick at 300/1, with the same firm.
He’s taken a shot in 83% of his 23 league starts and is averaging 1.7 shots per game, the highest average from players to have played most of the season.
He has also been mis-priced on BetVictor’s method of goal feature in the Bet Builder.
Have a small play on Matheus Pereira to score a penalty at 19/1 BetVictor.
- West Brom are 6/1 to score a penalty – but their penalty taker is 19/1 to score it. Work that one out!
- Southampton have conceded six penalties this season, all of which have hit the net.
- The last time Simon Hooper refereed West Brom, at Palace last month, he gave a penalty in the match.
- Saints conceded a penalty last time out, which was despatched by Burnley’s Chris Wood.
- West Brom have been awarded three penalties in the PL and FA Cup this season – Pereira took and scored all three.
This is a complete price play given I think it’s a mistake from Bet Victor, as they aren’t aware of who the Baggies’ penalty taker is since Charlie Austin’s departure.
Best Bets
West Brom vs Southampton – Matheus Pereira to score anytime (7/2 Bet365)
West Brom vs Southampton – Matheus Pereira to score a penalty (19/1 BetVictor)
