West Brom vs Sheffield United | Saturday 28th November 2020, 20:00 | Sky Sports
West Brom welcome Sheffield United on Saturday evening. It's too early to call it a six-pointer but there's no doubt that The Hawthorns plays host too a huge fixture with massive ramifications at the foot of the table.
Both sides still await their first victories of the season; Sheffield United prop the table up with just a solitary point whilst West Brom sit a place above them with three. It's an impossible task to split these sides based on what we've seen so far so I'm going to steer clear of the result, proposing some prices I like from elsewhere.
The betting angles
Both sides average 12 fouls per-game, which ranks them joint sixth in comparison with the rest of the league. The Baggies have only been awarded a total of 10 cards (nine yellows and one red) though, that's the third-lowest total in the league, as they average one card per game! Sheffield United have received marginally more cards but only a measly total of 12 (11 yellows and one red) as they average just 1.22 yellows pG.
However, given the magnitude of this fixture I think cards have got to be a play here (overlooking the statistics outlined above) and Bet365 have each team over one card priced at 11/5. The same bet is considerably shorter on William Hill.
A huge factor in this selection is the man with the whistle; Mike Dean. By his incredibly high standards, Dean has been a disappointment this season as he's only brandished an average of three cards per game. That ranks him 10th out of the 19 amongst this seasons EPL referees and I think his performances have suffered more than most players without a crowd to play up too!
That been said, two out of the last three games he has took charge has seen each team accumulate at least two cards. Dean has ref'd the Blades twice awarding two and three cards to the team from South Yorkshire. In the only West Brom game he's taken charge off this season he sent Gibbs off. Finally, it's such a massive game I think Dean is the type of referee who will look to want to make it about him.
If 11/5 is a bit skinny for your liking you can add Under 3 Goals under 365's bet builder which makes it 4/1. West Brom have only scored six this season with under three goals landing in six out of their last six EPL games. The Baggies have an xG of just 4.49! That's the lowest in the league and an average of just 0.49 a game!
Sheffield United only have found the net four times with six of their EPL games seeing two or fewer goals. They have an xG of just 8.7 (4th worst) which is an average xG of 0.96 pG.
For my final angle I've delved into the Shots on Target Specials markets available with Betfair and Paddy Power. Grady Diangana has been boosted to 3/1 to have an SoT from outside the box. Given that he is only 4/9 for an SoT with the same firm I think it is a good way of squeezing a bit of value out of him.
Diangana has averaged 1.37 Shots p90 this season with 30% coming from outside the box. He plays on the left and 43% of West Brom's attacks come down that side (36% from the right). It is also worth noting that 23% of their shots come from the left (19% from the right) and 45% of their shots come from outside the box. All of which bodes well for this angle. 38% of the Blades conceded shots have come from deep.
You find this bet under ‘Odds Boost' via the ‘Popular' tab.