West Brom vs Everton | Thursday 4th March 2021, 18:00 | Sky Sports
Everton travel to The Hawthorns on Thursday night in a game that they will be expecting to win given that they are currently 26 points clear of their opponents having played one game fewer.
The market doesn’t particularly rate either of these sides and that is no surprise. Unfortunately, West Brom have been wretched for most of this season, with a 17 point return from 26 games being fair given their quality of performance.
Everton’s point tally may total 43 but that is ten more than their performances (xG) merit and given that fuels the bookmaker prices it is no surprise that they are close to Evens to beat a West Brom side who have lost 15 of their 26 league matches this term.
I am a West Brom fan so balance could be questioned but I do feel that The Baggies have improved since manager Sam Allardyce was able to bring in five players during the transfer window.
Three of those – Ainsley Maitland-Niles, Okay Yokuslu and Mbaye Diagne – are significantly better than their replacements and it is no surprise that their presence has coincided with the home sides best run of the season, with The Albion gaining five points from their last three matches. West Brom won the xG in two of those matches (the two they didn’t win) having won by this metric in just two of their previous 23 games.
I will, however, leave the match odds alone. Dominic Calvert-Lewin is well capable of bullying a porous Albion backline and while the home side have improved, they are still lacking in so many key areas. Instead, I will look at two markets I have become more involved in in recent months.
Firstly, Mbaye Diagne at 27/10 to score with Unibet. The Albion striker has only managed one in his five games so far, but his xG is over three and he has missed five big chances. He has been able to create chances for himself and will be a focal point for Allardyce in this encounter.
Everton have performed pretty well defensively this term but the Senegalese has the potential to disrupt them and is definitely Allardyce’s chief offensive threat. 27/10 on him to score is simply too big.
Elsewhere, I like the look of the 12/5 on Conor Gallagher to be booked with Paddy Power. I did consider Okay Yokuslu and Allan in the same market and in all honesty if you could find a treble somewhere I would entertain it. Referee Darren England averages 3.3 cards per game (0.3 up on league average this term) and these are the three players most likely to be cautioned in my book (pardon the pun).
However, it is Gallagher that gets my vote in my book. The Chelsea player has been carded eight times in 20 appearances this season, suggesting 6/4 is the correct price. Having watched him for six months I think he is an excellent prospect but he will definitely make a couple of fouls that he could be cautioned for. 12/5 is certainly value for me.
West Brom vs Everton – Mbaye Diagne to score anytime (27/10 Unibet)
West Brom vs Everton – Conor Gallagher to be booked (12/5 Paddy Power)