THE BUNDESLIGA continues on Wednesday evening and Tom Love (@TomLove_18) is on-hand to preview the match-up between Werder Bremen and Eintracht Frankfurt.
Werder Bremen v Eintracht Frankfurt | Wednesday 3rd June 2020, 19:30 | BT Sport
Wednesday night sees a single Bundesliga game, an outstanding fixture that could prove pivotal at the bottom of the table.
After a shoddy return to the Bundesliga a few weeks ago, Werder Bremen have surprised everyone by keeping three consecutive clean sheets, all against top half sides, whilst also picking up two potentially vital wins at Schalke and Freiburg in their quest for survival. Head coach Florian Kohfeldt was coming under increasing scrutiny but he will be overjoyed with how his side have managed an upturn in results.
It puts the Riversiders within touching distance of 16th-placed Fortuna Düsseldorf and a win here will see them overtake F95 and put them just a point behind faltering Mainz. The pressure on this game for them is huge with it being their game in-hand and Kohfeldt’s charges will be buoyant, especially given they’re up against wretched travellers, Frankfurt.
The Eagles actually managed a rare away win at inconsistent Wolfsburg on Saturday; it was a slightly fortunate result, mind, losing the Expected Goals (xG) battle 2.41-1.78. Their own xG figure drops down to 1.00 when emitting the Andre Silva penalty. They were largely under the cosh but a late strike from Japanese international Daicha Kamada meant Adi Hütter’s side came back with all three points.
It was a big result for Die Adler, too. They were in potential risk of slipping into the danger zone but that victory gives them a five point buffer to the relegation play off place. They’re not fully out of it yet though and a loss at the Weserstadion will see them looking over their shoulders once more.
The betting angles
The bookies make the visitors slight 6/4 favourites and I think that’s probably about right. Although many will be put off by Frankfurt’s road record, they still pose an attacking threat with only two sides averaging more shots per game in the Bundesliga.
That brings me onto my first bet which is to take Frankfurt to have 14 or more shots in the game at 10/11 with SkyBet. Frankfurt average 15.2 shots and are coming up against a Bremen side who concede an average of 14.9 shots.
What’s more, in the reverse fixture Frankfurt racked up a mighty 25 shots. Bremen also conceded 28 shots versus Bayern Munich earlier in the season. Hütter has adopted a pretty attacking approach since he came to the club and with the likes of Kamada, Filip Kostic and Andre Silva they have plenty of players who love a pop at goal.
You can also back the visitors to have 21 or more shots at 14/1 and that could be worth a few quid too given it’s landed quite a few times this season and Bremen boast a poor home record. You’d imagine game state would have a part to play in this having a chance. Should the hosts take the lead they may sit back and invite Frankfurt on.
I’ll also dip into SkyBet’s Request-A-Bet market for one of my favourite bets to get involved with and that’s for 1+ Corner each team in each half and 10+ Booking Points each team which is priced up at 4/5.
With the magnitude of the game for both sides it’s hard not to see at least a card a piece, both sides rank in the top half for ill-discipline. In addition, given Frankfurt’s quite open nature we could see quite a few shots at both ends which will hopefully lead to corners. It’s difficult to find specific data to back this up but this is a bet I think is regularly quite well priced and lands often.
There’s one bet I have to get involved with as a price play too and that’s for big Martin Hinteregger to score anytime which is once again handsomely priced at a chunky 15/2 with Bet365.
The towering centre-half is actually now the top Bundesliga scorer for the Eagles bizarrely. He notched two against Bayern recently and is a huge threat from Kostic’s excellent set-pieces. He’s also coming up against a Bremen side well know for their dreadful defending of corners and set pieces in general. Leverkusen exploited that a few weeks ago and they’re often found wanting when balls are pumped into the box.
Hinteregger is as short as 3/1 elsewhere to score anytime.