DEBUTANT WLB contributor Jack Langford (@jacklangford95) shares his favourite goals-based fancies from the weekend coupon.
Arsenal vs Newcastle | Saturday 27th November 2021, 12:30 | BT Sport
They say you should never bet on the early kick off, but this week it’s time to make an exception. Arsenal have opened the scoring in their last 16 games against The Magpies. This is the longest run one team has had scoring first against another in the competition's history and current form suggests a goal-fest at the Emirates on Saturday.
Last Saturday we got our first glimpse into Eddie Howe’s new look Newcastle United side and while the former Cherries manager was absent from the touchline, his influence on The Magpies’ attack was clear to see. Joelinton, Allan Saint-Maximum and skipper Jamaal Lascelles were all on the scoresheet in a thrilling 3-3 draw with Brentford. For the first time this season, Newcastle had more than 20 shots at goal (23), and Eddie Howe’s side attacked with a newfound intensity and strategy.
However, defensive problems persist for The Magpies and the club’s 27 goals conceded is the joint-highest with Norwich City and Newcastle remain the only team in England’s top four divisions not to win a match yet this season.
Arsenal are unbeaten in their last five Premier League home games and it looks like the penny may have finally dropped for Mikel Arteta’s side. Last week’s collapse at Anfield highlights The Gunners’ problems at the back, but they face a much easier test here and will fancy their chances of winning comfortably. Newcastle, boosted by a switch-up in attacking tactics, will also expect to find the scoresheet in this fixture.
Arsenal to win and BTTS at 2.88 seems a good price given The Gunners’ recent home record and The Magpies’ shocking defensive one. Eddie Howe’s more attack-minded system will cause Arsenal problems, whilst also potentially making his Newcastle side even more vulnerable at the back. Expect goals and a win for Arteta’s side.
Arsenal to win and Both Teams To Score (15/8 Bet365).
Hull vs Millwall | Saturday 27th November 2021, 15:00
Hull are the Championship’s joint lowest scorers this season and there have been less than 2.5 goals in The Tigers’ last six matches. Likewise, there have been fewer than 2.5 goals in Millwall’s last 5 matches.
The Tigers are on the back of three clean sheets and three wins in a row. Their impressive form has lifted them out of the Championship relegation zone and Hull will be full of confidence going into Saturday’s clash.
Millwall, the Championship’s draw specialists, have found themselves all-square a remarkable 9 times in 19 matches this season. The Lions have drawn their last three games 1-1 and Gary Rowett’s side put in an impressive performance to frustrate Bournemouth midweek.
In recent weeks, both sides have proven difficult to break down and we can expect a cagey afternoon at the MKM Stadium on Saturday.
Under 2.5 Goals (4/7 Bet365).
Wimbledon vs Fleetwood | Saturday 27th November 2021, 15:00
Following Tuesday’s 3-1 defeat to Oxford United, Fleetwood sacked Manager Simon Grayson. The defeat was The Cod Army’s fifth in a row and they now find themselves in the League One relegation zone.
If you ignore last week’s injury-time victory over bottom of the table Crewe, it’s fair to say AFC Wimbledon aren’t in the greatest of form either. The Dons have won just one of their last six matches in all competitions and haven’t won at home since early September.
Therefore, in terms of predicting the winner, it’s a difficult match to call. However, a look at the average total goals table does appeal to a punter’s perspective. There have been 60 goals in Fleetwood Town’s 17 matches this season, this averaging at 3.53 per game – the highest tally in the division. AFC Wimbledon also average 3.06 per fixture and their home tally of 3.25 is only surpassed by three other sides in League One.
Unfortunately for both clubs, their seasons will not be judged on their standings in the average total goals table. Fortunately for us, it leads to a confident bet of over 2.5 goals at 2.00.
Over 2.5 Goals (1/1 Bet365).
Wealdstone vs Stockport | Saturday 27th November 2021, 15:00
Since their epic win over Bolton in the FA Cup two weeks ago, Stockport have impressively beat Woking 2-1 and Kings Lynn 5-0. There is a real feel-good factor in the County changing room following Challinor’s return to the club, and he’s made a fantastic start following his appointment.
Challinor’s squad is undoubtedly one of the best in the division as he has former Bolton captain Antoni Sarcevic, experienced striker Paddy Madden and other proven football league talent at his disposal. This, combined with Challinor’s exceptional record, means County are likely to mount a promotion push in the second half of this season.
Wealdstone are unbeaten in their last five league fixtures and have pulled off some impressive results against Wrexham and Grimsby in recent weeks. The team are defensively solid and don’t score many goals, this reflected by their total match goals stats at home (1.33). This is the second lowest in the division and Wealdstone look set to try and contain County on Saturday afternoon. However, due to the gulf in quality, it’s likely Stockport will have too much for Wealdstone.
Stockport to win and Under 2.5 Goals (11/4 Bet365).
Best Bets
Arsenal vs Newcastle – Arsenal to win and Both Teams To Score (15/8 Bet365)
Hull vs Millwall – Under 2.5 Goals (4/7 Bet365)
Wimbledon v Fleetwood – Over 2.5 Goals (1/1 Bet365)
Wealdstone v Stockport – Stockport to win and Under 2.5 Goals (11/4 Bet365)
