THE irrepressible Jack Wright (@JackWright_BSB ) is on-hand to preview Wednesday nights's MD3 matches from the Champions League action not involving English clubs.
Zenit vs Lazio | Wednesday 4th November 2020, 17:55 | BT Sport
Zenit must surely win here if they are to retain any hope of qualification out of Group F after defeats to both Dortmund and Club Brugge however a win back in domestic action at the weekend will mean they at least come into this fixture having ended a three-game losing sequence.
Lazio in contrast are unbeaten in four (W3, D1, L0) despite having had to deal with a whole host of selection issues over the last couple of weeks and there will be key personnel missing again here in Saint Petersburg.
Sergey Semak’s side have struggled when stepping up to play Europe’s elite and have lost five of their last six UCL games at all stages. It is interesting to note though that from their last 11 UCL group stage home ties, Zenit have not conceded a first half goal in 10 of them.
This led to us picking up a nice win last week with Dortmund going on to win the game despite being level at half time and with Simone Inzaghi’s side the more in form of the two I am taking the same bet again – Draw half time with Lazio winning at full time is a very decent 6/1 with BetVictor.
One thing we should expect from Lazio and most Serie A sides for that matter is goals – the two Italian sides playing last night saw 10 goals scored across both matches. Le Aquile’s league fixtures this season have seen an average of 3.67 goals per game and both sides have found the net in nine of their last 10 UCL group games.
With this in mind and the fact Zenit will need to push for the win the 21/20 available with Boyle Sport for over 2.5 total goals and both teams to score, looks a good option to me.
Barcelona vs Dynamo Kiev | Wednesday 4th November 2020, 20:00 | BT Sport
Trying to extract value bets out of this game was a long and arduous process especially with news breaking that the visitors have up to nine players missing through testing positive for COVID-19 and travelled with just 17 members of their squad.
Both first choice goalkeepers are out meaning 18-year-old Ruslan Neshcheret should keep his place after making his debut in the win over Dnipro at the weekend.
Although this isn’t a vintage Barcelona side, they have managed to take control of this group with two wins from two including over Juventus and Lionel Messi must see this as an ideal opportunity to get some more goals under his belt.
The legendary Argentinian has actually picked up more cautions (2) in La Liga this season than goals (1) although he has scored in each of his sides UCL games so far – albeit both strikes were from the spot.
The Catalans number 10 is as short as 1/4 to add to his Champions League goals tally here, while you can get a top priced 13/2 (William Hill) he bags a hat-trick and it’s 3/1 (Sky Bet) he hits the back of the net from outside the area.
I can’t see anything other than a big win for Barcelona and I’m sure Messi will be heavily involved in any goals but at those prices I’m not getting involved so instead taking a bit of a speculative attempt at predicting the final score. Ronald Koeman’s side have already hit five once so I am taking them to do so again and will play a small stake on 5-0 at odds of 10/1 with Betfair/Paddy Power.
If the side from the Ukraine are to keep the score down – or better – than their defence will have to be on top of their game and that is likely to include 21-year-old Denys Popov. Barcelona have seen their opponents pick up a combined total of nine cards over their two UCL games so far and we should expect a similar haul here with England’s Michael Oliver the man in the middle.
The man from Northumberland, averages five cards per game when in UCL action, up considerably on his average in the EPL and with Popov having been booked twice in just four league appearances this season I like the look of Sky Bet’s offering of 2/1 that he finds his way in to the referee’s notebook in this one.
Club Brugge vs Dortmund | Wednesday 4th November 2020, 20:00 | BT Sport
As they were at the weekend, Dortmund could be without Erling Haaland for this clash in Belgium, and that would be a big blow to add to the problem of having only one fit centre back and they certainly can’t take this game lightly with their hosts knowing a win would open up a four point gap to their German visitors at the half way stage of the group.
Both sides met in the 2018/19 competition with Dortmund keeping clean sheets in both games which is something they will be keen to do this time around and stretch their run of “wins to nil” to four games.
Lucien Favre’s side have been more grinding out victories as opposed to sweeping teams aside as highlighted by the fact, they are yet to find the net in the first half of any of their last four UCL games – or in any of their last five competitive matches.
Adding the fact Philippe Clement’s side are without a UCL home victory in 11 attempts I am chancing a low scoring affair here and taking the 7/5 with Betfair/Paddy Power on under 2.5 goals.
Regular starter Mats Rits had two shots last time out against Lazio but it is his work in central midfield to shut down the Dortmund supply line where most of his focus will be tonight.
Last week the 27-year-old from Belgium made four interceptions but also picked up a yellow card for one of his total of four fouls, which made it four cautions from his last six appearances and I am taking him to be carded for the third UCL game in succession at odds of 3/1 with Sky Bet.
Ferencvaros vs Juventus | Wednesday 4th November 2020, 20:00 | BT Sport
Cristiano Ronaldo is back!
After an enforced COVID-19 related lay off CR7 made his return to action last weekend at Spezia – and as you would expect from a 36-year-old it takes a bit of time to get back in the routine – well three minutes to be precise!
As a 56th minute replacement for Paulo Dybala the Portuguese legend scored on 59 minutes and added a second from the penalty spot 14 minutes from time. Beware Ferencvaros!
This is the sort of game Ronaldo will be licking his lips at to make up for goalscoring lost time and there are many options to get the great man onside.
It would not surprise me to see him go one better than his weekend brace and bag a hat-trick at odds of 11/1 with William Hill – but I will play things a little safe and take the option of 3+ shots on target with Betfair/Paddy Power at even money (1/1).
For a little spice, which we know Cristiano loves to sprinkle on his performances where possible, I am going to take the 6/1 on offer with Sky Bet for a Ronaldo goal from outside the area – this of course includes his trademark free kicks as well as any efforts from open play.
Before his layoff Ronaldo made two Serie A appearances for Andrea Pirlo’s side managing 14 shots across both games of which five were outside the box. If you don’t buy a ticket, you can’t win the raffle.
RB Leipzig vs PSG | Wednesday 4th November 2020, 20:00 | BT Sport
In a night where a lot has been made about who is missing from the starting lineup rather than who is actually playing none of the absentees come more impactful than Neymar and Kylian Mbappe.
In a repeat of last season’s UCL semi final Leipzig and PSG meet at the Red Bull Arena locked together on three points having both beaten Istanbul and both lost to Manchester United – with the German sides heavy 5-0 defeat meaning they sit below their opponents in the table on goal difference.
Julian Nagelsmann’s side actually go in to this one as slight favourites following that team news bulletin but will need to shake themselves from a slump that saw a 1-0 defeat to Monchengladbach follow that humiliation at Old Trafford.
This one is a tight one to call and the result will depend on how PSG settle with a very reshuffled pack – so I am going to focus on two players who I always keep an eye out for in the player props markets.
Angelino, on loan from Manchester City, has exploded into the new season with four goals to his name already from six Bundesliga appearances and two outings in the UCL.
The 23-year-old has been thriving in a left wing-back position and has been able to fire at least one shot off in all eight appearances this campaign and with at least two in five of those.
Most of these attempts have been inside the box which illustrates just how advanced Angelino is playing and in what you would expect to be a very open and attacking game against the French champions I think he can cross that two shots line again. Odds of 16/5 with Betfair/Paddy Power will do me nicely.
In a game involving two clubs with such a fantastic reputation for attacking football it is probably no surprise both my selections involve players having shots, but it shows the all over threat these sides possess when both are defenders.
Dayot Upamecano needs no introduction and is on the radar of the biggest clubs in world football. The French centre back is the poster boy for a modern-day defender, strong, athletic and aggressive but comfortable on the ball totally at ease striding out from the back with an eye for goal.
The 22-year-old has managed three shots twice from his six Bundesliga appearances, finding the back of the net once, as well as scoring from one of his two shots for France, in a 4-2 win over Croatia. He also had a shot against Istanbul and two more attempts in that defeat in England last week.
So that’s 10 games in total and Upamecano has had two or more shots in four of them, implied probability of 40%, and therefore odds should be around 6/4. With Betfair/Paddy Power offering 5/1 we are getting a huge slice of value and one I can’t turn down!
Sevilla vs Krasnodar | Wednesday 4th November 2020, 20:00 | BT Sport
Neither of these two sides enter this contest in good form with both of them winning only one of their last six fixtures – and Krasnodar having now lost their last three including a comprehensive 4-0 home defeat in this competition at the hands of Chelsea last week.
Sevilla’s victory was against Rennes last week so will be looking to build on that by also defeating their Russian visitors.
That win was the ninth occasion in their last 10 group stage games of European competition where no more than one team has scored and seven were deadlocked goalless at half time.
With the feeling Julen Lopetegui’s side will be too strong here but the visitors aim will be to hang in there as long as possible it makes sense to play the half time/full time market and Unibet have priced up a draw at half time with Sevilla running out eventual winners at 13/4.
Part of Murad Musaev’s plan to stay competitive will require his midfield to bite and cut off the supply line to the likes of Lucas Ocampos and much of that reliance will fall on to Tonny Vilhena who although only picking up two cautions from 13 games so far this season saw eight yellow cards from just 20 league appearances last season.
From his stats it is clear he likes to be involved in the game with three interceptions, two tackles and one foul against Chelsea last week with the league game before that seeing the Dutch midfielder make two interceptions, three tackles, commit four fouls and see a yellow card. Its that sort of performance I am expecting here and am taking pretty short odds of 14/5 with Sky Bet that Tonny Vilhena is carded again.
Best Bets
Zenit vs Lazio –Draw/Lazio (6/1 BetVictor)
Zenit vs Lazio – Over 2.5 Goals and Both Teams To Score (21/20 Boylesports)
Barcelona vs Dynamo Kiev – Barcelona to win 5-0 (10/1 Betfair)
Barcelona vs Dynamo Kiev – Denys Popov to be carded (2/1 SkyBet)
Club Brugge vs Dortmund – Under 2.5 Goals (7/5 Betfair)
Club Brugge vs Dortmund – Mats Rits to be carded (3/1 SkyBet)
Ferencvaros vs Juventus – Cristiano Ronaldo 3+ shots on target (1/1 Betfair)
Ferencvaros vs Juventus – Cristiano Ronaldo to score from outside the area (6/1 SkyBet)
RB Leipzig vs PSG – Angelino to have 2+ shots (14/5 Betfair)
RB Leipzig vs PSG – Dayot Upamecano to have 2+ shots (5/1 Betfair)
Sevilla vs Krasnodar – Draw/Sevilla (13/4 Unibet)
Sevilla vs Krasnodar – Tonny Vilhena to be carded (14/5 SkyBet)
