THE irrepressible Jack Wright (@JackWright_BSB ) is on-hand to preview Wednesday nights's MD2 matches from the Champions League action not involving English clubs.
Istanbul Basaksehir vs PSG | Wednesday 28th October 2020, 17:55 | BT Sport
Both these sides will be looking to bounce back from opening round defeats although emphatic victories back in domestic action will have given each team an injection of confidence heading into this clash.
The visitors had the luxury of resting Kylian Mbappe, but he still managed to bag a brace in an 18-minute cameo off the bench to confirm the home victory over Dijon at the weekend.
Odds of 1/6 illustrate just what warm favourites Thomas Tuchel’s men are, however, a home side who have lost just once in their last 18 competitive matches (W13, D4, L1) on home soil cannot be taken lightly.
Okan Buruk’s side could be a tough nut to crack and given just one of the Parisians last 10 UCL group stage goals away from home have come in the opening 45 minutes I am taking a chance on a tight first half here.
Under 1 First-Half Goal on the Asian Total 1st half is 21/10 with Unibet and that seems worth a bet to me – meaning although we need no goals to claim a win, if there is just one goal, we will at least get our stake money back.
Any side with Neymar in it will draw fouls, the Brazilian has a Ligue 1 average of five fouls drawn per game so far this season and also suffered five in last week’s defeat to Manchester United. Add in the likes of Mbappe and Angel Di Maria and you are already up close to double figures.
In fact, of the last 20 European fixtures PSG have drawn 14 or more fouls in 18 of them – only Dortmund in February this year and Napoli in 2018 failed to reach that number, both making 13.
So, to see odds of 9/10 on offer from Unibet for over 13.5 home team fouls was a massive surprise – but I’m not here to ask why, so I am on and I make this my bet of the night!
Club Brugge vs Lazio | Wednesday 28th October 2020, 17:55 | BT Sport
Hello – if it’s not Anthony Taylor taking charge of a big European game – *heads straight to the penalty markets!
The English referee has been a dream for penalty punters so far this season, giving six spot kicks in just five Premier League appointments – although none in his last two which must mean he is getting an itchy trigger finger ahead of his first UCL appointment of this campaign.
Lazio were also the dons of receiving penalty awards last season winning an incredible 18 from their 38 Serie A fixtures – although none so far this term. Club Brugge warmed up nicely for the Lazio/Taylor perfect storm by conceding a spot kick in their 2-1 defeat at Leuven on Saturday so after hunting for the best price I will be playing a penalty to be awarded in this one at odds of 7/4 with Virgin.
Borussia Dortmund vs Zenit St. Petersburg | Wednesday 28th October 2020, 20:00 | BT Sport
I always feel naïve when I jump at the chance of taking a bookies price boost or special offer but after last night’s easy collect on Lukaku having a shot on target at evens I am tempted enough to go in again.
This time we have William Hill dangling the bait I am about to gobble up by offering me prolific Dortmund marksman Erling Haaland to score with his side winning 1-0, 2-0 or 2-1 at odds of 11/2. With a goal a game record for his club this season it’s no surprise to see the Norwegian at odds of 4/9 to add to his tally here – which I expect him to do.
Dortmund come into this match protecting a 100% record after winning their three Bundesliga home games to nil so with two results fitting that criteria, I’m prepared to take the chance at the price.
The Russian champions tend to struggle when stepping up in class and competing in this tournament, losing seven of the last ten and are also without a win in four road trips in their home Premier League.
Strangely for a side known for its goalscoring prowess Dortmund have only been leading at half time in one of their last eight UCL home games and with just two of their last 14 goals in the competition and two of their ten home league goals coming in the first half I like the look of the 7/2 Bet Victor are offering on Dortmund winning at full time after going in at half time all square.
Ferencvaros vs Dynamo Kiev | Wednesday 28th October 2020, 20:00 | BT Sport
Possibly the hardest game to call of the week for me as two sides who share a group with Juventus and Barcelona meet in Hungary knowing this is a game they cannot afford to lose but should set their sights on winning.
Both sides soundly beaten last week by their illustrious opponents but undefeated domestically and looking back to their last and only head to head won’t help us here as it was the 1975 Cup Winners Cup Final.
So instead of picking a winner I am looking at the player markets here and trying to identify both a scorer and a receiver of a card at reasonable prices.
For a goalscorer I went for Tokmac Nguen the Norwegian midfielder who has a hattrick to his name this season and scored the opener at the weekend as Ferencvaros defeated Ujpest to stay atop the OTB Bank Liga.
Not only has the 27-year-old scored five times from six appearances domestically he has also managed to find the net on three occasions in the UCL qualifying rounds, once against Celtic and both goals in a 2-0 win over Djurgaarden. Betfair/Paddy Power are offering 10/3 for Nguen to get on the scoresheet again while he is as short as 15/8 elsewhere.
I always try to look for some value when selecting a player to be carded and I think I may have found that in Ferencvaros’ Isael. Although the Brazilian forward is yet to find his way in to the referees notebook this season he was cautioned five times last campaign and saw red once but the season before that caught my eye with four yellows in just 9 league appearances.
Three successful tackles and one foul committed against Barcelona last week highlights he was doing his defensive work, so I am happy to take the 11/2 on offer with Unibet for Isael to be carded here which is much bigger than what any other firm is offering – for example Sky Bet go 13/5.
Juventus vs Barcelona | Wednesday 28th October 2020, 20:00 | BT Sport
It is looking like Cristiano Ronaldo will be missing again for Juventus which takes the edge off this clash a little as who wouldn’t want to see CR7 and Lionel Messi doing battle on the same pitch again.
Both sides have several other injury concerns added to Gerard Pique’s suspension for the Catalans and what in recent times would have been a real heavyweight title fight could now be seen as a bit of an undercard filler of two giants possibly a little past their best.
I have a feeling the game will be more a battle of attrition as Sergio Busquets and Rodrigo Bentancur take centre stage rather than Messi and Ronaldo, less Ballon d’Or more Dogs of War.
For that reason I’m dipping back in to the player to be carded market again and I like the odds available for The Old Lady’s Uruguayan, 10/3 with Bet 365.
Although not carded in Serie A so far this campaign, Bentancur did pick up a caution in the victory over Dynamo Kiev and it’s his record over the last couple of seasons that make me think we have some value here. Nine yellow cards from 30 league appearances in 2019/20 with nine and a red from 31 matches played in 2018/19.
Barcelona recently acquired the services of highly regarded teenager Sergino Dest from Ajax and he has soon demonstrated his ball winning abilities with three full appearances producing at least two tackles in each. It’s hard to predict the Juventus line up due to the injuries but it is likely to be one of Juan Cuadrado, Federico Chiesa or even Aaron Ramsey that the American faces up against.
With Kiev’s right back Tomasz Kedziora also managing two tackles last week I am taking Ladbrokes offer of 19/20 that Dest can keep his run going and make 2+ tackles whoever the opponent.
Sevilla vs Rennes | Wednesday 28th October 2020, 20:00 | BT Sport
Whenever I watch Sevilla, I always look forward to seeing the performance of Lucas Ocampos and it is he I will be focusing on in this last preview.
After 14 league goals in 33 La Liga appearances last season the Argentinian forward has only a goal in the Super Cup final against Bayern Munich to show for his efforts so far this campaign. He will be desperate to get back amongst the goals and should have a good opportunity against Rennes who despite sitting third in Ligue 1 have conceded 10 goals from their opening eight games, also conceding in their first ever UCL game last week which came from the area Ocampos will be patrolling in this one.
With some key defensive personal missing for the visitors I am taking Ocampos to take the opportunity to open his account here at odds of 29/10 with Unibet.
If as expected Ocampos operates on the left side the man predominately tasked with keeping him quiet will be Rennes right back Hamari Traore – just as Reece James did for Chelsea in last weeks 0-0 draw. The 20-year-old Chelsea defender made six tackles in total, but we can get 6/4 for Traore to produce just half that amount which he has achieved in three of his six Ligue 1 games so far – 3, 2, 4, 1, 4, 2.
Best Bets
Istanbul Basaksehir vs PSG – Under 1 Asian Total First-Half Goal (21/10 Unibet)
Istanbul Basaksehir vs PSG – Over 13.5 Fouls by Istanbul Basaksehir (9/10 Unibet)
Club Brugge vs Lazio – A penalty to be awarded (7/4 Virgin)
Borussia Dortmund vs Zenit St Petersburg – Erling Haaland to score and Borussia Dortmund win 1-0, 2-0 or 2-1 (11/2 William Hill)
Borussia Dortmund vs Zenit St Petersburg – Draw/Borussia Dortmund (7/2 BetVictor)
Ferencvaros vs Dynamo Kiev – Tokmac Choi Nguen to score at anytime (10/3 Betfair)
Ferencvaros vs Dynamo Kiev – Isael to be carded (11/2 Unibet)
Juventus vs Barcelona – Rodrigo Bentancur to be carded (10/3 Bet365)
Juventus vs Barcelona – Sergino Dest 3+ tackles (19/20 Ladbrokes)
Sevilla vs Rennes – Hamari Traore 3+ tackles (6/4 Ladbrokes)
Sevilla vs Rennes – Lucas Ocampos to score at anytime (29/20 Unibet)
