JACK Wright's (@JackWright_BSB) brilliant Bet of the Day continues on Wednesday as we head to Germany…
Greuther Furth vs Sandhausen | Wednesday 28th April 2021, 17:30
We are on familiar territory for our humpday Bet of the Day.
The second placed hosts have a fantastic opportunity to close the gap between themselves and leaders Bochum to just three points and in doing so improve their chances of securing top flight football next season, we should expect them to be at full throttle to claim all three points in this one.
Sandhausen are the worst travellers in Bundesliga 2 with a current losing streak on the road of nine games, they have however, just won three successive home games, so should come in to this game with a decent level of confidence.
Although with two games in hand on the three clubs beneath them, Gerhard Kleppinger’s side sit just one place and one point above Braunschweig, who occupy the relegation play off place which should guarantee them coming in to this fixture with plenty of desire and fight – especially knowing they have to end that atrocious away record with only one home game remaining for them to play.
So, with plenty to play for at both ends of the table it is once again the card markets that have my attention.
The visitors have the worst disciplinary record in the division picking up 76 yellows and 3 red cards from their 29 league games so far with Greuther Furth the fifth best behaved team seeing 22 less yellow cards and 2 fewer reds from one game more.
Sandhausen have the second highest fouls committed per game average in Germany’s second tier with 14.7 whist only Hamburger SV have suffered more fouls committed against them per game (14.3) than Furth.
As regular readers of Bet of the Day will know I like to use a small recent sample size to give me a snapshot on how a team is shaping up at this late stage of the season – however Sandhausen have been consistent in the collection of cards throughout the campaign.
The 15th placed side have seen two or more cards in each of their last five away games, in eight of their last ten and in 10 of 13 away games in total – collecting more than their hosts in all the last five road trips, seven of their last ten and in nine of the 13 total.
In contrast, Stefan Leitl’s side have picked up more cards than their opponents only once in their last five games at their Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer home, just three of the last ten there and in five of 14 overall this term.
Annoyingly the refereeing appointment for this game will not be known until Wednesday morning so I am reluctant to put forward Sandhausen booking points without knowing the card capabilities of the man with the whistle – but if a half decent appointment is forthcoming, I will likely play the 30+ line which is better than even money – which means for today’s Bet of the Day I will play the Asian Card Handicap as offered by Bet 365.
Taking Sandhausen –0.5, basically meaning we are backing them to collect more cards than their hosts and is priced at a pretty tasty 17/20 – that way the strictness of the official shouldn’t matter too much.