PREMIER LEAGUE expert Lucas Swain (@LucasSwain95) takes a look at Monday night's contest between Watford and Chelsea, pinpointing the value.
Watford v Chelsea | Monday 5th February 2018, 20:00 | Sky Sports
The contrast between Watford and Chelsea’s respective fortunes currently resemble the Red Sea in the biblical narrative, and with the Blues playing home to (Victor) Moses, it may be wise to side with them in this week’s instalment of Monday Night Football.
Religious analogies aside; Watford are currently the worst side at home in the Premier League, have the third-worst defence and sit second-bottom in the form table. All things considered, it’s hardly a surprise Marco Silva was sent packing with the third-worst win ratio in the last decade of management at the Hornets.
On the 21st January, Watford announced that Javi Garcia would take the poisoned chalice at Vicarage Road much to the annoyance of Paul Merson, Sky Sports’ resident self-parody pundit, because “why’s this geezer any different to Gary Rowett?” as another foreign import is signed.
Nonetheless, regardless of what manager have at the helm, this match-up is going to be difficult. Watford are winless in 13 matches against Chelsea in all competitions and their form has already been touched upon.
After watching Chelsea’s shocking defeat to Bournemouth from the stands, Olivier Giroud is expected to make an appearance for the Blues, although it’s not certain how what role Emerson, recently bought in from Roma, will play in the match.
Watford will be resting on Gerard Deulofeu – the man with a club history of a seasoned Champions League veteran despite being 23 – to jazz up their depleted goalscoring record after his arrival on loan.
A particular market I’ve been looking at recently and having success in is the Highest-Scoring Half, which landed in my first appearance on WeLoveBetting in 2018. Both Chelsea and Watford favour scoring and conceding home/away respectively in the second-half and at over evens (23/20 William Hill) it’s an attractive prospect.
Chelsea are the obvious pick to win this match, but I can’t bring myself to back it at the price. In which case, I’m going to apply some of the data I’ve mined from the second-half selection into my more ambitious pick.
The HT/FT market can be a difficult one, which is why I don’t advise a big stake. However, with Chelsea’s most popular HT scoreline being 0-0 (4/12) and Javi Gracia being new to the job, I’m guessing Watford will be pragmatic with their approach and a HT draw seems plausible.
Watford v Chelsea – Second-Half to be the Highest-Scoring Half (23/20 WilliamHill)
Watford v Chelsea – Draw-Chelsea double result (4/1 BetVictor)