SAM INGRAM (@SamIngram_) previews Wednesday night's Champions League quarter-final first leg showdown between Villarreal and Bayern Munich.
Villarreal vs Bayern Munich | Wednesday 6th April 2022, 20:00 | BT Sport
Villarreal make their way into the Champions League quarter-finals for the first time since 2009. After upsetting the odds in Turin, Villarreal’s task now ramps up a notch.
The Bavarian giants, Bayern Munich, travel to the Estadio de la Ceramica for the first leg. Julian Nagelsmann’s side are within touching distance of a tenth consecutive Bundesliga title and rock up to the latter stages in Europe following an 8-2 aggregate victory over RB Salzburg.
Villarreal approach Wednesday with a stutter. Two fixtures against relegation candidates in Levante and Cadiz seemed the perfect starter to the European main course. Yet, two back-to-back losses on their travels transformed their expected lightweight backdrop to Bayern into nothing short of a disaster.
With their La Liga hopes derailed and European qualification out of their hands, six-time winners of the continent’s flagship domestic competition touch down in Spain.
One shining light that shouldn’t be overlooked when analysing this match-up is Villarreal’s home form. The hosts enter the quarter-final stages on the back of a nine-game unbeaten streak at the Ceramica, with Atleti and Real Madrid unable to encourage a faltering Villarreal in that timeframe.
Bayern are clear favourites here, despite the hostile welcome which awaits them. Their European pedigree and class within the squad deciding the favourites tag.
Boylesports' 8/15 is the best price for a Munich win at the time of writing. It’s a price that doesn’t interest me in the slightest, especially with how Bayern’s susceptibility to concede away from home shows no signs of slowing down.
Bayern have conceded on the road in five of their last six fixtures. This run started with a currently-hopeless Hertha Berlin registering against Bayern before Bochum’s 4-2 win signalled concerns in Munich.
The 11 of 14 of Bayern’s Bundesliga away matches banking BTTS is second to only Leverkusen for both teams to score this season. That is not a statistic to be proud of.
It does, however, suggest a route into this fixture from a betting perspective. Unai Emery’s pre-match comments suggest his side will have a good go against the visiting Germans which feeds into the upcoming selection.
“Against Bayern Munich we are capable, and we will have chances to win … We will play the 90 minutes at home with the aim of staying alive in the tie.”
At home this season, the Spaniards average 2.33 goals per90 in La Liga. For Villarreal to register at least one goal in the tie, but for Bayern to live up to their tag as favourites, BTTS and a Bayern Munich win is priced at 19/10 on bet365.
With Early Payout included if Bayern takes a two-goal lead at any point in the match, it seems like a decent price to consider.
Best Bets
Villarreal vs Bayern Munich – Bayern Munich to win and Both Teams To Score (19/10 Bet365)
