US Open – Gigantic duo set for tight fought encounter


TENNIS analyst Gavin Mair (@gavinnightmair) takes a look at Wednesday's action at the US Open from Flushing Meadows.

Day 2 of the US Open went well as we spotted a 2/1 upset in the women’s draw as Taylor Townsend overcame 16-year-old Amanda Anisimova. Unfortunately, 5/1 play Yuichi Sugita was unable to reverse his recent form and muster much of a challenge against the opposable Richard Gasquet.

Day 3 doesn’t offer as many betting opportunities as yesterday, but there are still some matches worthy of having a touch of interest.

Barbora Strycova v Lara Arruabarrena | Wednesday 29th August, 17:00 | Amazon Prime

I was not too impressed by Barbora Strycova’s margin of victory in her first round encounter against world number 238 Danielle Lao. Strycova won by a break margin in both sets against her limited opponent, who qualified but at 27 years old shouldn’t be considered anything more than a journey-woman player.

Strycova has met her opponent Lara Arruabarrena on 4 occasions and they are tied at two wins apiece. If you are off your game even slightly Arruabarrena is no fun to play as she will retrieve ball after ball and continually ask questions of your temperament and consistency.

Temperatures in New York reached 36 degrees yesterday and if you are being forced to grind past an opponent it is certainly challenging.

Strycova has a far from stellar record in New York despite holding a seeded position for most of the past five seasons. Arruabarrena hasn’t fared any better in New York but gave herself a glowing appraisal following a 6/3 6/0 first round victory over world number 87 Kateryna Kozlova saying, “I’ve never played a first round match so well here.”

I expect Strycova to probably have just enough to come through but a price of evens on Arruabarrena to win a set is big enough to tempt me into action.

Arruabarrena to win a set is available at Evens with William Hill.

John Isner v Nicolas Jarry | Wednesday 29th August, 19:00 | Amazon Prime

Big American John Isner has rarely found success at the US Open. The tournament comes hot on the heels of a gruelling summer and by the time New York comes around he often fails to show his level-best. However, this year the Wimbledon semi-finalist and Miami champion has paced himself better during the summer months and will hope to be a factor in the second week for a change.

His opponent today is Nicolas Jarry of Chile, who stands at 1.98m tall and like Isner bases his game around a dynamic serve. In the previous round Jarry faced Peter Gojowczyk who has a reputation for causing concern for the big servers with his punchy strokes. Jarry dealt with the match-up well and hit an impressive 21 Aces.

Isner’s serve needs no introduction and it seems likely that there will be plenty of close sets between this pair, with break point chances at a premium.

Over the course of the match I do expect Isner to win but I believe that we may witness a tiebreak or two.

Tiebreak bets are tough to judge as you are relying on both players to keep their concentration up during a full set of play. That is why it is important to make sure the odds are in your favour.

I will take a chance on a first set tie-break at a best price of 7/5 with Betway in the Set 1 Tiebreak? Yes market.

Keep your stakes small, and if it fails to land I wouldn’t put anybody off backing a tiebreak in the second set. For information Skybet price the chances of a tie-break occurring in the match at 1/8!

Best Bets

Barbora Strycova v Lara Arruabarrena – Lara Arruabarrena to win a set (1/1 William Hill)

John Isner v Nicolas Jarry – First set tie-break (7/5 Betway)

About Author

I first got into tennis betting when Andy Murray started to emerge as a top level player. Inspired by reading the likes of Moneyball and Soccernomics, I have improved my betting by using statistical analysis to help indicate where the value lies. Over the years I have written for tennis betting websites, and focus my writing on outright markets where I have had three successful seasons since I started betting these markets in 2016.

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