THE irrepressible Jack Wright (@JackWright_BSB ) is on-hand to preview Tuesday nights's MD4 matches from the Champions League action not involving English clubs.
Krasnodar vs Sevilla | Tuesday 24th November2020, 17:55 | BT Sport
These two sides played out an eventful and entertaining encounter in the reverse fixture prior to the international break with Krasnodar taking a shock two goal lead before falling to a defeat as Youssef En Nesyri came off the bench to fire a quick double and seal victory for the La Liga side.
Julen Lopetegui’s side were reduced to 10 men on the stroke of half time after the dismissal of Jesus Navas in Spain resulting in the skipper being suspended for the trip to Russia. With the home side having received two red cards of their own in their last three home games – giving a penalty away in the other against Chelsea – the odds of 7/2 with William Hill are mighty appealing for a match with plenty of form.
Referee Marco Guida has only taken charge of three top flight games in his native Italy so far this season but issued two red cards for two separate incidents when Lazio played Inter and with an overall record of 50 dismissals from 164 competitive games he rubber stamps the selection.
With just one point from their opening three UCL fixtures the Russians will view this as a must win game and those prospects have been boosted by the return of Remy Cabella who scored the only goal in Krasnodar’s 1-0 victory over Tambov at the weekend and in doing so ended a five-match losing streak.
Having caused Los Palanganas plenty of problems away there is no reason why Murad Musaev’s side can’t create plenty of chances again and with the 30-year-old Frenchman Cabella potentially operating from the area of the pitch usually patrolled by the suspended Navas I’m taking a chance he can add to his tally of two goals from two UCL appearances at appealing odds of 4/1 with Betfair.
Borussia Dortmund vs Club Brugge | Tuesday 24th November2020, 20:00 | BT Sport
Club Brugge travel to Dortmund to face the official Golden Boy of 2020 Erling Haaland who has warmed up for this one by firing four second half goals against a hapless Hertha Berlin at the weekend.
This has the makings of one-way traffic following on from a 3-0 win for the German side in the reverse fixture and with Lucien Favre’s injury headaches easing we have to explore as many angles as possible to get his team, who have won five of their last six, onside.
Lets start with 20-year-old Haaland, joint top scorer in the competition so far, who has now scored 10 goals in his last six club appearances including a brace in the aforementioned victory over the Belgian side earlier in the month. I can’t turn down the opportunity to back the same outcome here at odds of 23/10 with Paddy Power.
Dortmund have now scored at least two goals in their last six competitive fixtures with eight of their last 10 victories coming by a margin of two or more and six of those covering a -2 handicap. With the safety net of a refund with a win by two goals I like the look of the -2 Asian Handicap here with odds against available via Genting who offer 34/25.
Dynamo Kiev vs Barcelona | Tuesday 24th November2020, 20:00 | BT Sport
It’s the battle of the injury plagued in Kiev as a Lionel Messi-less Barcelona travel to the Ukraine looking to extend their 100% UCL Group G record against a side who could be without as many as 14 first team players.
Kiev pushed Ronald Koeman’s side all the way in the reverse fixture only falling to a 2-1 defeat and with the Catalans sitting a lowly 13th in La Liga having lost twice from four away games there could well be a surprise in the offing.
A side that can still call on the likes of Antoine Griezmann and Philippe Coutinho can of course never be underestimated but I just have a feeling Mircea Lucescu can sense the opportunity to take one of the biggest of European scalps and will have his side pumped up for this tie.
Barcelona have conceded first half goals in three of their last five matches and Betway offer 7/5 for the hosts to make a breakthrough in the opening 45 minutes in their Olympic Stadium home – this is against a side that has kept only one clean sheet in their last nine games and in only one of their last eight UEFA ties.
If the home side are to come out firing, as I hope, then one man likely to be leading the fight is 27-year-old Ukraine international Vitaliy Buyalskyy who managed five tackles last time out at Camp Nou.
Ladbrokes offer of 2/1 for 3+ tackles again in this one looks very achievable while those more ambitious amongst you may like the 12/1 on offer form the same firm for a repeat of the five tackles in the reverse fixture.
Juventus vs Ferencvaros | Tuesday 24th November2020, 20:00 | BT Sport
Juventus look set to book their place in the next round as they host the Hungarian champions and current league leaders – but a side who have conceded 11 goals in the opening three Group G fixtures, including four in the reverse fixture.
With 4-1 and 5-1 defeats to Juventus and Barcelona respectively looking par for the course I feel comfortable getting onboard with a Juventus win and Over 3.5 Goals at 11/10 with Boylesports.
Goals look even more of a likelihood with a certain Cristiano Ronaldo back and firing for the Bianconeri – as highlighted by his first half brace at the weekend in the 2-0 victory over Cagliari meaning he has scored in each of his first five Serie A appearances of the season – the first Juve player to achieve such a feat since three points for a win came in to operation.
With eight league goals already under his belt he will see this as a massive opportunity to get his UCL tally up and running for the season and I can quite easily see him hunting down a hat trick here at odds of 13/2.
Lionel Messi is always a good barometer when trying to gauge a line for the Portuguese superstar and in that aforementioned 5-1 hammering the Argentinian fired in seven shots at goal with four on target.
I can’t touch the 1/2 for CR7 to have seven or more shots in Turin but we do get odds against for those four plus shots on target – 7/5 with Ladbrokes so that is the selection I will put forward, although I wouldn’t put anyone off Sky Bet’s 5/1 for us to see that infamous celebration having scored from outside the area.
Lazio vs Zenit | Tuesday 24th November 2020, 20:00 | BT Sport
Lazio have had a trying start to the season with countless players testing positive, negative then positive again for COVID-19 and although that situation seems to be improving, I am not ready to back them at heavy odds-on for this one.
Instead, I am taking a strong interest in the cards markets, especially after four yellows apiece earlier in the month in that St Petersburg clash.
Lazio’s last 10 fixtures this season have seen 7-4-8-6-8-6-3-4-9-9 Booking Point issued with eight of those games featuring at least two cards for each team. Zenit’s last 10 matches have seen them collect 3-2-4-3-2-2-1-1-3-1.
England’s Michael Oliver is the man in charge of this one and warmed up for it nicely by showing three yellows and a red (55 Booking Points) as he officiated Aston Villa v Brighton at the weekend.
This will be the second time an England referee has taken charge of a Lazio UCL game this campaign with the last occasion seeing Anthony Taylor book five of their players as well as three opponents.
I therefore love the look of Bet365 offer of Over 0 Cards in the First-Half and Over 1 for Each Side in the match at odds of 11/8.
One man Simone Inzaghi must be delighted to have back in his ranks is last season’s top goalscorer Ciro Immobile, who having not been on international duty will be fresh for this clash.
The Italian marksman has scored in each of his last four appearances and I was surprised to see him available at 1/1 to find the net again on home soil as he did in his only UCL appearance of the season in the 3-1 home win over Dortmund.
PSG vs RB Leipzig | Tuesday 24th November2020, 20:00 | BT Sport
This looks the game of the night and defeat for PSG as well as results going against them elsewhere could as good as eliminate them from the competition.
The Parisians completely lost the plot in the reverse fixture having taken a sixth-minute lead, squandered a penalty 10 minutes later to double their advantage only to concede either side of half time and have two men sent off to compound their misery.
Revenge must be on the menu in the French capital and as a result I’m expecting a feisty affair.
A total of 40 fouls were recorded in the game at the start of the month – evenly split, there were 37 when the two faced off in the semi-final of this competition last season with Leipzig contributing 24 so to see the line set at 28.5 by Unibet with odds of 11/10 was something of a surprise – albeit a very pleasant one.
With Danny Makkelie the man in charge my final selection has to be for a penalty to be awarded – added to the foul stats above the man from the Netherlands has given five spot kicks from six Eredivisie games this season plus penalties in his both of his UCL appointments this campaign – odds of 7/5 with Unibet are skinny – but it’s a must play giving the stats going in to this one.
Best Bets
Krasnodar vs Sevilla – Remy Cabella to score at anytime (4/1 Betfair)
Krasnodar vs Sevilla – Red card to be shown (7/2 William Hill)
Borussia Dortmund vs Club Brugge – Erling Haaland to score 2+ goals (23/10 Betfair)
Borussia Dortmund vs Club Brugge – Borussia Dortmund -2 Asian Handicap (34/25 Genting)
Dynamo Kiev vs Barcelona – Dynamo Kiev to score Over 0.5 First-Half Goals (7/5 Betway)
Dynamo Kiev vs Barcelona – Vitaliy Buyalskyy 3+ Tackles (2/1 Ladbrokes)
Juventus vs Ferencvaros – Juventus to win and Over 3.5 Goals (11/10 Boylesports)
Juventus vs Ferencvaros – Cristiano Ronaldo to have 4+ shots on-target (7/5 Ladbrokes)
Lazio vs Zenit – Over 0 First-Half Cards and Each Team Over 1 Card (11/8 Bet365)
Lazio vs Zenit – Ciro Immobile to score at anytime (1/1 Red Zone)
PSG vs RB Leipzig – Over 28.5 Fouls (11/10 Unibet)
PSG vs RB Leipzig – A penalty to be awarded (7/5 Unibet)
