THE irrepressible Jack Wright (@JackWright_BSB ) is on-hand to preview Tuesday nights's MD3 matches from the Champions League action not involving English clubs.
Lokomotiv Moscow vs Atletico Madrid | Tuesday 3rd November 2020, 17:55 | BT Sport
Lokomotiv Moscow came close to earning a surprise Champions League point against the holders last week until a late Joshua Kimmich goal ruined the party. As disappointing as that was it was probably more troubling to have suffered defeat at the hands of Sochi back in domestic action at the weekend meaning a run of four competitive matches without victory (W0, D1, L3).
For Diego Simeone’s side however it was back to back victories as an entertaining 3-2 UCL triumph over Salzburg was followed up with a 3-1 win at Osasuna on a return to La Liga action where they remain unbeaten after six games and in fact are one of only two sides across Europe’s top five divisions who are yet to trail in a domestic league game in the current season.
Although Atletico are now unbeaten in 22 league games they were thumped 4-0 by Bayern on UCL match day one, to give some hope to Marko Nikolic and his team.
I can’t see past an Atletico Madrid win here but as they did last time out I can see the Russian side causing a few problems and getting on the scoresheet so the away win with both teams scoring at 13/5 with Bet Victor, seems a good way of getting a side who are as short as 1/3 onside.
If the hosts are to get something out of this tie, they will need to put a stop to Joao Felix who is starting to show just why Atletico paid over £100m for him. The 20-year-old Portuguese international could have had a hat-trick at the weekend but for a missed penalty and that followed up another brace in last week’s five-goal UCL thriller, he could have even got on the scoresheet against Bayern only for VAR to rule the strike out for offside.
However, five goals in eight games for his club is a healthy return and makes the 7/4 with Unibet for Joao Felix to find the net here a worthwhile play in my opinion.
Shakhtar vs Borussia Monchengladbach | Tuesday 3rd November 2020, 17:55 | BT Sport
Not many people would expect these two sides to be occupying the qualification places after two rounds of games with Inter in third place and Real Madrid propping up the table, but that is how we indeed go in to MD3.
Which of course makes this a huge game knowing at least one of the big guns will be dropping more points as they do battle at the Alfredo di Stefano stadium later in the evening.
On each of the last four occasions the home side have welcomed German opposition in this competition the game has ended all square, and I believe Monchengladbach could be added to the list of Eintracht Frankfurt, Hoffenheim and Bayern Munich in leaving the NSC Olympic stadium with just a point.
Since taking charge of Die Fohlen, Marco Rose has overseen four European away days and three of those have also ended all square so as much as both sides would like to win this one, neither will want to lose which makes the draw a very appealing option at 11/4 with Bet365 in a game I feel could go either way.
If you cast your mind back to last week, we picked up a very comfortable win when playing Florian Neuhaus tackles, but in the absence of that market at the time of writing I took a look at something on a similar theme.
Although the 23-year-old made three successful tackles last week he also committed four fouls and picked up a yellow card and when he found his way in to the referee’s notebook at the weekend defeat of RB Leipzig that made it four cautions in five games – one of which being as a second half substitute.
Given his current form, that his side rank fourth for fouls given up in the UCL this season so far and the expected competitive nature of this game I liked the look of the 11/4 for Florian Neuhaus to be carded with Unibet.
FC Porto v Marseille | Tuesday 3rd November 2020, 20:00 | BT Sport
It is possible that the referee is more well-known than most of the players in this clash as Spain’s Antonio Miguel Mateu Lahoz travels to Portugal to officiate two sides having an inconsistent start to the season.
Porto have made the worst start to their Primeira Liga campaign in 48 years while Marseille have lost both UCL group games so far, making it now 11 consecutive defeats in the competition, and only won two of their last eight games.
With such scrappy form I am going to focus on two player bets and with Lahoz the man in the middle there is always a good chance you will see cards, as was the case when he cautioned five players in his only previous UCL appointment so far this season.
Marseille’s Hiroki Sakai has already been cautioned three times from eight Ligue 1 games this season and should be up against Porto’s Brazilian wide man Otavio who is their most fouled player in the league this season having been illegally stopped 17 times from five outings – an average of 3.4 per game. Senor Lahoz will not stand for that so SkyBet’s odds of 14/5 for Hiroki Sakai to be carded looks appealing.
If the Dragoes are to extend their impressive home record in the group stages of this competition which currently stands at six consecutive wins I would expect Sergio Oliveira to have a large influence on the game. The Portuguese international has scored in each of his side’s last two fixtures and has netted four goals from eight appearances in all competitions and is 27/5 to score again with Unibet.
Midtjylland v Ajax | Tuesday 3rd November 2020, 20:00 | BT Sport
Ajax have been rocked by a COVID-19 outbreak sweeping across their squad and as such only travelled with a 17-man squad for this clash in Denmark. With key players Davy Klaassen and Dusan Tadic among those missing as you would expect people have gone off in search of the best prices available for a home win.
However, despite having 20-year-old keeper Kjell Scherpen making his debut he will at least be behind a regular back four and let’s not forget experienced international players such as Danny Blind, Klaas-Jan Huntelaar and Quincy Promes are available to Erik ten Hag.
A creditable 2-2 draw at Atalanta and narrow single goal defeat to Liverpool in this competition have split 5-1, 5-2 and 13-0 league wins so there should be no shortage of confidence or belief that three points can be taken back to the Netherlands especially with their hosts having shipped six goals from their two UCL group games and furthermore suffered an embarrassing 4-1 loss to Nordsjaelland at the weekend.
Therefore, I’m prepared to take a chance on Ajax finding a way to overcome adversity and claim the win here at odds of 51/50 with Novibet.
Sometimes in these types of games you need a good luck charm and Ajax may have one in the aforementioned Quincy Promes. Although the Dutch international hasn’t been a regular in the XI recently there is a fair chance he will start here given the selection issues outlined above.
The 28-year-old is 2/1 to score with Betway as he has done twice in the league so far this season, but did so 12 times in 20 appearances last campaign as well as four times in 5 UCL outings – of which included goals in each of Ajax’s last two away wins in this competition at Lille and Valencia.
Real Madrid vs Inter Milan | Tuesday 3rd November 2020, 20:00 | BT Sport
Both sides have injury headaches going in to this clash which as mentioned previously sees them occupy the bottom two spots in the Group B table after two games.
Zinedine Zidane, already without right backs Dani Carvajal, Nacho and Alvaro Odriozola, now has a doubt over the fitness of the man who has been filling in – Lucas Vazquez.
As much as that’s a head scratcher, Madrid have bundles of quality to call on in most other areas of the pitch including the return from injury of Eden Hazard, whereas Antonio Conte could well be in a worse situation as he is likely to be missing the prolific Romelu Lukaku to add to the already sidelined Alexis Sanchez.
Incredibly Los Blancos have only won one of their last seven home UCL games while Inter only have one win from their last six away in this competition.
Surely only a win will do for the hosts here so I expect to see them go all out for the three points but with a shaky defence that have seen them concede goals to Huesca at the weekend, to Monchengladbach and Shakhtar in this competition, as well as Cadiz in La Liga I am going to take that win coming with both sides getting on the scoresheet. This is a best priced 11/5 with Bet 365.
If you could pick one player to drag Madrid over the line it would have to be Sergio Ramos and the bookies continue to give us tasty odds against options for him to cause mischief in the oppositions box.
On penalties and always a threat from set pieces we can get 21/10 with Ladbrokes that he has at least two attempts at goal in this one as he has done in four of six La Liga starts, in three of four appearances for his country and in his only UCL appearance so far, the 2-2 draw with Monchengladbach.
Salzburg v Bayern Munich | Tuesday 3rd November 2020, 20:00 | BT Sport
Such is Bayern’s dominance at the moment, it is so tough to find any kind of value with regards to markets concerning them winning or scoring goals.
A Bayern win, which would be their 14th successive UCL victory is the same price as a Robert Lewandowski goal (1/3), you need to be backing five or more goals in the match just to get better than even money – not very appealing, so again I will take a look at the player markets to find some kind of value for us in this one which after all should be entertaining and produce goals.
Last week I successfully put forward Leon Goretzka to score at anytime but this week I am going to side with his midfield partner Joshua Kimmich.
Last season the 25-year-old was often deployed as a right back, but the return of Benjamin Pavard has released the German international back in to midfield where his limitless energy can see him burst in to the box at any stage of the 90 minutes. It was he that popped up with the 79th minute winner in Moscow to keep this incredible winning run in the competition going and he has also already got off the mark in the Bundesliga as well scoring the winner in the German Super Cup final.
This is definitely a price play but one that should give us a run – 11/2 with Betfair/Paddy Power.
For a side to have any chance of taking points off of the current UCL champions they need to fight and battle as it’s a sure thing Bayern will – they will also need to keep the aforementioned Lewandowski quiet which is something easier said than done against a player who has already scored 10 times in just five league appearances and will come in to this one fresh after being rested at the weekend.
That responsibility will largely fall on the shoulders of Andre Ramalho and I am taking him to overstep the line and see a card as he attempts to stop the prolific Pole from opening his UCL scoring account for the season.
The Brazilian defender has already been sent off this season from just four appearances and saw yellow after just 13 minutes against Luis Suarez and co last week making that two yellows from four UCL games – he was also carded nine times in 26 league appearances last season. So although a little short I think it’s a fair play to take the 23/10 on offer from Unibet that Andre Ramalho ends up in the referees notebook again.
Best Bets
Lokomotiv Moscow vs Atletico Madrid – Atletico Madrid to win and Both Teams To Score (13/5 BetVictor)
Lokomotiv Moscow vs Atletico Madrid – Joao Felix to score (7/4 Unibet)
Shakhtar vs Borussia Monchengladbach – Florian Neuhaus to be carded (11/4 Unibet)
Shakhtar vs Borussia Monchengladbach – Draw (11/4 Bet365)
FC Porto vs Marseille – Hiroki Sakai to be carded (14/5 SkyBet)
FC Porto vs Marseille – Sergio Oliveira to score (27/5 Unibet)
Midtjylland vs Ajax – Ajax to win (51/50 novibet)
Midtjylland vs Ajax – Quincy Promes to score (2/1 Betway)
Real Madrid vs Inter Milan – Sergio Ramos 2+ shots (21/10 Ladbrokes)
Real Madrid vs Inter Milan – Real Madrid to win and Both Teams To Score (11/5 Bet365)
Salzburg vs Bayern Munich – Andre Ramalho to be carded (23/10 Unibet)
Salzburg vs Bayern Munich – Joshua Kimmich to score (11/2 Betfair/Paddy Power)
