JACK Wright's (@JackWright_BSB) Bet of the Day continues on Tuesday as we return to Portugal.
Sporting vs Boavista | Tuesday 11th May 2021, 20:30
With Porto defeating Farense on Monday night prior to this game, Sporting will need a victory to be crowned the Primeira Liga champions for the 2020/21 season.
Boavista’s back-to-back draws leaves them still in the relegation zone but an unlikely point from their visit Estádio José Alvalade will lift them out of it at if Rio Ave lose at Santa Clara in one of the earlier kick offs.
We should definitely expect to see Jesualdo Ferreira's side defend deep and battle hard as they desperately look to escape the drop, whilst the incentive of winning their first title in 14 years and in their own stadium, whilst defending against a team who will be mostly attacking on the counter, should also see some pressure and plenty of aggression from the league leaders.
Once again, a familiar route to Portugal is quite literally on the cards.
The Axadrezados have been reliable collectors of cards when on the road, picking up two or more in 80% of their away games so far this campaign and in each of their last eleven, against a side who have drawn the second highest fouls in the division (551), from having the second highest percentage of possession (58.3%) we should see the visitors easily cross that line again.
The Leões have drawn their opponents into over 1.5 cards in all but four games this season (87%) which is the highest in the Primeira Liga, and in 14 of 15 clashes at home and the good news is they are no angels themselves – having the sixth worse disciplinary record in the division and picking up over 1.5 cards in seven of their last ten home games.
With the presence of a first half card a crucial part of this bet it is good to see that 14 of the last 15 Sporting matches and nine of Boavista’s last ten have seen at least one caution in the opening 45 minutes.
We have one of the league's best referees for cards in the middle for this clash with nobody issuing more yellow cards (108) or red cards (8) than Luís Godinho – there are only two regular (at least 10 appearances) officials who can top his yellow card per game average of 5.42.
The 35-year-old official has taken charge of two Sporting fixtures this season, showing nine cards in the clash with Porto with five for Rúben Amorim’s side and another nine yellow cards in their trip to Famalicao with three for Sporting as well as a red!
Godinho has taken three Boavista games and although we don’t want a repeat of the first one which saw just one card for them in their clash with Porto, the next two were much more like what we are looking for with seven yellows when visiting Maritimo, collecting four themselves and taking all the cards in their visit to Braga last month – two yellows and a red.
All those stats point to a high number of cards with lots on the line in Lisbon – so seeing at least one card from either side in the first half and a total of 2 or more for both of them is another confident Portuguese cards selection.
Sporting vs Boavista – Both Teams Over 1.5 Cards and Over 0.5 First-Half Cards (1/1 William Hill)