TOTTENHAM welcome Newcastle on Super Sunday. Matthew Kirby (@M_Kirby95) delivers his betting analysis.
Tottenham vs Newcastle | Sunday 27th September 2020, 14:00 | Sky Sports
Tottenham host Newcastle fresh off the back of their 3-1 Europa League win in Macedonia over Shkendija.
After his four-goal haul against Southampton last Sunday, Son Heung-min stole the show once again. He scored their second, while chipped in with the assists for Érik Lamela and Harry Kane.
There has been plenty made about Spurs’ fixture schedule, and the travelling involved with the two Europa League qualifiers they’ve played so far, so that will demand plenty of this squad, which saw Joe Hart make his debut in goal, with Dele Alli starting.
However, Spurs have benefitted this week after their League Cup tie against Leyton Orient was postponed, after several positive Coronavirus tests at the League 2 club.
Newcastle were in League Cup action in midweek against a League Two side, and their class told. They ran out 7-0 winners at Morecambe and were already 4-0 up when Toumani Diagouraga was sent off in the 33rd minute.
After being heavily involved in that cup win, Miguel Almirón is likely to return to the starting XI after being benched in the miserable home defeat against Brighton last Sunday.
The Magpies lost 3-0 and were 2-0 down after just seven minutes after two goals from Neal Maupay. What made things worse for Newcastle was Allan Saint-Maximin limping off in the first half, and the fact they didn’t register a single shot on the Brighton goal.
The betting angles
I’ll jump straight in with the two angles I’ll be playing in this one. It starts with Spurs to win and Under 3.5 Goals at 6/5 with SkyBet.
Even though they played in Macedonia, there’s enough quality in this Spurs team to get the job done here. Son and Kane’s partnership has reaped the rewards in recent games and looking towards Son to continue his purple patch wouldn’t be a bad angle. And you can get 6/4 that he bags at any time.
When you look at last weekend’s data from their respective games, Spurs recorded 2.28xG, while Newcastle achieved just 0.52xG. And as mentioned above, the Magpies failed to have a shot on target in that defeat.
So far in two games, they’ve only had two shots on target, both resulted in goals in their win at West Ham. No team has had fewer attempts on their opponents’ goal.
The worrying thing about that is that they rank seventh for shots with 21, yet just two have hit the target. With the quality of Almirón, Ryan Fraser and Callum Wilson, then you’d expect a change in fortunes, but it might not be here.
In 2020, Tottenham’s home league record stands at played nine, won six, with one draw and two defeats. Not too shabby! All six of those wins have seen Under 3.5 Goals, including their 2-0 win over Man City, a 2-1 North London derby victory and when they swept Leicester aside 3-0.
They beat Newcastle after the restart up at St James’ Park with Son opening the scoring and Kane bagging a double. Once again, that pair coming to the fore, so that’s what you have to expect.
The other bet I’m willing to play is Newcastle corners. So far, they’ve taken 14 in their two league games – seven in each. When they lost to Spurs in July, they hit five, and actually won the corner count 5-4, so the 10/11 knocking around on 4+ Newcastle corners looks generous.
They like to get the ball into the box, and they have players in wide areas who can put a menacing ball into the box. With the likes of Almirón, Lewis, Hendrick and Manquillo to name a few, there’s enough that could cause Spurs problems, so blocked crosses could see the visiting sides corner tally rack up.
Those look to be the two bets for me. I just hope the goalposts are the right height for Jose!