TOTTENHAM take on Man City in Sunday's EFL Cup final showdown. Tom Love (@TomLove_18) shares his betting thoughts.
Tottenham vs Manchester City | Sunday 25th April 2021, 16:30 | Sky Sports
- Manchester City have seen Under 3.5 Goals in 28 of their 41 wins this season in all competitions.
- Tottenham have won just 3 of their last 11 games away from their home ground.
This was all set up for an intriguing final as old foes Pep Guardiola and Jose Mourinho would meet for a one off game at Wembley. To many peoples surprise though, Mourinho was sacked early in the week amid the news of the Super League. It was curious timing to say the least, after all Daniel Levy brought Jose to the club to win trophies yet he won’t even get chance to manage the penultimate fixture.
The rather dour style of football along with a defence that really struggles to keep clean sheets put him under pressure. Given the players at his disposal in attacking areas you’d expect more goals from this side too, maybe the temporary appointment of Ryan Mason along with Chris Powell will spark some kind of upbeat revival.
Winning trophies has been a piece of cake for Pep and his City team. They’ve won this trophy 5 times since 2013, a remarkably consistent record and bookmakers make them strong favourites to make that 6 at Wembley on Sunday afternoon.
It’s easy to see why they’re 8/15 to win in 90 minutes and 3/10 to lift the trophy when you glance at their recent record. The Blue Moon have won 29 of their last 32 games in all competitions, keeping many a clean sheet in that run too. We’ve seen Pep tweak his system to be a bit more solid off the ball and being more wary of opposition threats and acting accordingly.
They have to be fancied to get the job done here and the odds on offer are more than warranted. Given 35 of their 41 wins this season have seen under 4.5 goals it makes sense to chuck that in alongside the win which is a much more palatable 4/5 on Bet365’s Betbuilder.
There’s a few prop plays that appeal here too. Firstly Spurs to have over 1.5 offsides at 5/4 with Bet365 looks a nice quote. 30 opposition sides have had 2 or more offsides against Man City this season, mainly down to their high line and sides looking to get in behind. No doubt Spurs will be looking for Heung Min-Son and Gareth Bale to use their pace behind this backline.
Talking of Son, he may have to be the chief goal threat should Harry Kane not be fit enough to start. I’m surprised he’s even money to attempt over 1.5 shots with Bet365.
The South Korean has surpassed this line in 23/31 league games this campaign, including 14 of his last 17 games. We’ve seen him cause this City side plenty of problems in the past and he’s clearly good enough to compete with the best in the world. The same bet is around 4/6 elsewhere.
Best Bets
Tottenham vs Manchester City – Manchester City to win and Under 5 Goals (4/5 Bet365)
Tottenham vs Manchester City – Tottenham Over 1.5 Team Offsides (5/4 Bet365)
Tottenham vs Manchester City – Heung Min Son Over 1.5 Shots (1/1 Bet365)
