THE CHAMPIONS LEAGUE returns on Tuesday night. We asked Tom Love (@TomLove_18) to source the best bets from Tottenham's mouthwatering match-up with Bayern Munich.
Tottenham v Bayern Munich | Tuesday 1st October 2019, 20:00 | BT Sport
Last seasons’ finalists Tottenham blew a 2-0 lead in Piraeus on matchday one of the Champions League against Olympiacos to eventually draw 2-2. It was disappointing to see Spurs fail to control the game when in a strong initial position; that being said, it shouldn’t have too much of an effect in the long run as they’re still expected to qualify in what looks to be a rather forgiving group in comparison to some.
Mauricio Pochettino has complained and bemoaned the lack of togetherness in the early stages of the season and called a big team meeting allowing players and staff alike to get things off their chest and to find some common ground. Maybe it’s just natural after a Champions League final loss, the hangover is to be expected.
There looks to be a bit of disrespect in the prices on the hosts considering they got to the final last season; bar the peripheral Fernando Llorente, Tottenham have not lost any of that squad and they've even added quality in the summer, breaking their transfer record twice. The only sides who should be around even-money when travelling to North London should be Liverpool, Barcelona and Man City in my book.
I have Bayern Munich on a similar level to the likes of Juventus and Real Madrid and I’d argue Spurs probably deserve to have a mention in that group.
Bayern overrated?
Bayern top the Bundesliga with 14 points from six games, however five teams trail them by just a single point. I think they’ve got a serious challenge on their hands for the domestic title for the first time in years with Dortmund and Leipzig looking the real deal.
Gaffer Niko Kovac has still got question marks around whether he can manage a side with such lofty expectations, he’s proven he can get his side to swat away the lesser lights but the Croatian has been found wanting when his boys have visited the stronger sides in Germany and Europe.
FC Hollywood failed to win at top four domestic rivals last season, coming home without victory after trips to Dortmund, Leipzig and Leverkusen. They also failed to win at Freiburg, Nuremberg and Hertha Berlin in native action whilst also not beating Ajax, Real Madrid and Liverpool on the continental scene.
Sure, they have a squad stacked with quality but I think they could come here and see a draw as a good result. It looks to be their trickiest test in the group stage at least and there’s no urgent desire for them to have to come to London and win. Spurs have been strong since moving to their new permanent home and the injury list is easing for them now.
The betting angles
All in all I think the 4/5 available with Blacktype on the hosts with a +0.50 start on the Asian Handicap looks quite generous. Admittedly it’s harder to get a grip on quality difference when teams in contrasting European leagues face off but I’d personally have Bayern as slight favourites, but not 11/10 material. I thought we’d be getting a quarter ball game here so I’m happy to take Spurs to avoid defeat.
I’ll also dip into the Player Shots market and I like the look of Heung Min-Son to take 3+ shots in the game at even-money with SkyBet. He’s currently averaging 3.40 shots per-game, which is more than any other Spurs player, including Harry Kane. He knows Bayern well from his time at Hamburg and Leverkusen and he did impress in those fixtures.
The South Korean is managing to get almost half of those shots on target which is impressive, to compare Kane is averaging 1.30 to Son’s 1.60 on-target. He likes to cut in and take pops from all over the pitch, he also has the pace to get in behind into one-on-one situations.
Robert Lewandowski is once again showing his goalscoring class with 10 in six this season for the Pole. He’s averaging a mammoth 4.80 shots with 2.70 landing on-target. SkyBet go 8/1 that he and Son manage 5+ shots on-target between them and given the averages they combine to give 4.10 on-target per-game, therefore the 8/1 does look like a standout price worth a small play, i'd probably say anything north of 5/1 would represent value.
Best Bets
Tottenham v Bayern Munich – Spurs +0.50 Asian Handicap (4/5 Blacktype)
Tottenham v Bayern Munich – Heung Min-Son to have 3+ shots (1/1 SkyBet)
Tottenham v Bayern Munich – Heung Min-Son and Robert Lewandowski to have 5+ shots on-target between them (8/1 SkyBet)
