Thursday’s Bet Of The Day: Play-Off clash to go against the grain


JACK Wright's (@JackWright_BSB) Bet of the Day continues on Thursday as we head to the League Two play-offs.

Tranmere vs Morecambe | Thursday 20th May 2021, 18:00 | Sky Sports

Rewind a couple of months ago and Tranmere were challenging for the League Two title, but after a run of just three wins from their final 13 games they only had two points to spare from eighth-place Salford.

A run that coincided with injury to top goalscorer James Vaughan, who in a timely boost for the Merseysiders is now back available to play at least some part in the play-offs – however his return did not come in enough time to save Keith Hill’s job so it is the responsibility of caretaker pair Ian Dawes and Andy Parkinson to try and guide Rovers back to League One, it will be interesting to see if there is an immediate “different” managers bounce at the most crucial of times.

In contrast, visitors Morecambe, won five of their last six matches but agonisingly finished just one point behind Bolton in third, so although they have momentum in terms of results it will be interesting to see their reaction to coming so close but ultimately just missing out on automatic promotion.

Whatever happens it must be said, Derek Adams has done some job guiding a side rated 200/1 outsiders for the title to within three games of the third tier of English football, but to do so they will have to improve on their record against sides in the top seven having only picked up 11 points from a possible 36 in the regular season although three of those did come against Tranmere.

Despite shaky end of season form Prenton Park has been something of a fortress for the Super White Army, having only lost once in their last nine there – as is usually the case predicting a result is a tricky business – so instead I am looking at goals.

As already mentioned, Tranmere are in the temporary control of Ian Dawes and Andy Parkinson, however, this isn't the first time this season the pair have held the fort, taking the reins from Mike Jackson coincidentally after a 1-0 defeat to Morecambe, prior to Keith Hill’s appointment.

It may seem crazy to be backing a goals bet in a game involving a team seemingly out of form and who scored just five goals in their final 10 league games – however, as well as having the aforementioned Vaughan back for a greater threat at the sharp end of the pitch another interesting stat really leapt out at me.

That first spell in November got underway in a solid but unspectacular way with a 1-0 win but in the remaining four games, results were as follow – 2-1, 2-2, 4-3 and 5-0 – a total of 20 goals in those five games with all bar that first game going over 2.5 match goals.

Looking at the Shrimpers this season they ranked second overall only to Oldham for goals per game with an average of 2.76, not one 0-0 draw and with 57% of games seeing three or more strikes.

So, at very appealing odds, which I think are based on Keith Hills’ Tranmere, I am taking over 2.5 match goals at 29/20 with Betfair.

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Tranmere vs Morecambe – Over 2.5 Goals (29/20 Betfair)

About Author

Having had a passion for football for as long as I can remember – I’m talking Shoot League Ladders here – one of my first “bets” is still my biggest win. After begging my mum to let me fill in her pools coupon so I could show off my knowledge, eight draws later and a cheque for £11,500 was soon in the post. As a Norwich fan it’s important to have a good grasp of what’s going on in the lower leagues and I also like exploring those less popular leagues to have a delve into any stats-based markets that are available. Right now, I’m particularly enjoying player bets. Outside of sport, I love eating and drinking - maybe a little too much - as well as listening to a varied spectrum of music, both from the comfort of my own home and at festivals.

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