JACK Wright's (@JackWright_BSB) new Bet of the Day continues on Thursday as we head to the Championship.
Rotherham vs Coventry | Thursday 15th April 2020, 17:30 | Sky Sports
There is no time for basking in the glory of a vital, hard earned three points for Rotherham after their 3-1 success over QPR on Tuesday – as some 48 hours later they are thrust in to a massive relegation six pointer as Coventry pay a visit to the Aesseal New York Stadium.
The Millers are playing catch up after having several games called off due to COVID outbreaks but a win here would see them leapfrog the Sky Blues, with the clubs swapping positions either side of the dotted relegation line.
Once again, I am leaving the outcome and instead putting all my focus on to a market which is perfectly suited to this type of game and should definitely come in to play here – cards.
A home side who must be battling fatigue as much as their opponents desperate to claw their way out of the relegation zone against a side who have the worst away record in the championship this season and will surely be giving everything to avoid swapping places with their hosts.
Paul Warne’s men have picked up cards consistently throughout the season, as you would expect for a side who have the second lowest possession average in the league (45.5%) and been at the wrong end of it for much of the campaign.
A collection of 64 yellow cards and four red is the seventh highest in the league, having picked up 20+ booking points in 11 of 19 home games so far – the third highest percentage (58%) – interestingly picking up four more cards on home soil than when playing away.
Mark Robins’ side are relatively well behaved – sitting in the bottom three for cards collected – although they have had five players sent off this term – with only Sheffield Wednesday seeing more red cards (7) – however the game magnitude should see this as a “going” day for them when they know they will have to compete against their abrasive hosts.
This battle could also see two of the most cautioned players in the Championship, with Rotherham’s Michael Ihiekwe and Coventry’s Leo Østigard both having picked up 10 cards behind only Nathaniel Chalobah (11), although Ihiekwe is a doubt with a hamstring strain.
The man with the whistle is Australian Jarred Gillett who has a fair season average of 3.35 cards per game and a bookings point average in the Championship of 33.75 – he has also taken charge of two Rotherham games this term showing them three yellow cards on both occasions.
With both these sides gaining promotion last season, we have some recent form to go off of.
This fixture last year saw two yellows for the home side with the visitors picking up a yellow and a red, while in the opposite fixture Coventry collected one yellow with Rotherham seeing three, when they met at St. Andrews in December, although the Sky Blues kept their slate clean the Millers once again were cautioned three times.
You may be able to work out my original bet here was Rotherham to collect 20+ booking points which was 5/6 with Sky Bet at time of writing, however has since crashed to 4/6 – but I am equally happy to play and put forward the Asian card line with Bet 365 which has since been put up, being set at 3 and can be backed at odds of 17/20.
A confident selection for Bet of the Day and I have indeed backed BOTH those aforementioned lines.
Rotherham vs Coventry – Over 3 Asian Cards (17/20 Bet365)