JACK Wright's (@JackWright_BSB) Bet of the Day continues on Thursday as we head to Norway…
Molde vs Valerenga | Thursday 27th May 2021, 20:00
We are off to Norway for our Bet of the Day once again as the busy start to Eliteserien continues, but on this occasion not to attempt a hat-trick of Bodo-Glimt wins – instead we are focusing on the game involving Molde who have been a constant in the top two of the Norwegian top flight over the last five years.
Although this bet isn’t going to predict the winner or how many goals are going to be scored, allow me to set the scene.
Erling Moe’s side have started the season well, claiming three wins and a draw from their opening four fixtures although they will be slightly disappointed to have dropped points against newly promoted Tromso especially having been 1-0 and 3-1 to the good at the Alfheim Stadion.
Having taken over from New York City bound Ronnie Deila at the start of last season, Dag-Eilev Fagermo guided Vålerenga to a fantastic third placed finish and European qualification, some improvement on his predecessor.
Your view on The Bohemians start to this season will depend if you have a glass half empty/half full outlook – but the facts show one win, two draws and one loss, missing a penalty in a 2-1 defeat – the win coming against bottom side Brann with one of the draws against one of their main rivals for a top three finish, Rosenborg – and they could be a tough nut to crack here for the league leaders given their current unbeaten status on their travels.
Vålerenga have dominated possession in all of their games so far with a low of 58% in the draw with Rosenborg and a huge 74% in a home loss to Kristiansund – interestingly these sides have shared three of their opening four opponents so far and despite the better results Molde have seen far less of the ball.
In those three games MFK had 59% v Kristiansund, 49% against rock bottom Brann and 47% at Rosenborg – compared to their visitors record of 74%, 64% and 58% against the same opposition – therefore it wouldn’t be a big surprise to see Dag-Eilev Fagermo have more of the ball.
Seeing a lot of the ball can often lead to winning a high number of corners and that has been the case for Enga, winning 9, 8, 12 and 7 flag kicks in their four league games so far and with Molde conceding 8 against the league whipping boys in their last game at their Aker Stadion home it was a stat I was keen to get onside.
Paddy Power set Vålerenga’s line at over 4.5 corners (even money) which is a line they have easily crossed in each game so far while Molde have conceded 8 and 7 flag kicks in both games where they have had less possession than their opponent – their last two outings.
Therefore, I am very willing to play the aforementioned line in a game where, situation dependent – and Vålerenga have been competitive in all games so far this season – I expect the visitors to still visit the corner quadrant on six or more occasions.
Molde vs Valerenga – Valerenga to have Over 4.5 Corners (1/1 Paddy Power)